Market Overview for IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) on 2025-10-07

• IQ/Tether declined sharply in early ET hours, dropping ~0.5% in two hours.
• Volatility spiked after 19:00 ET with a 0.8% range, followed by consolidation.
• Volume surged 5x above average, yet price failed to confirm bullish follow-through.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential for short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands showed significant contraction before the sharp selloff.

IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) opened at 0.003257 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.003222 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.00328 and a low of 0.003132 over the period, with a total traded volume of 32,766,722.6 and a notional turnover of ~$104,699.76. The price action suggests a bearish bias amid elevated volatility and mixed momentum signals.

Structure & Formations

The past 24 hours showed a key support level forming near 0.003165, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.003203–0.003196. A doji candle appeared at 0.003227–0.003227, indicating indecision. Resistance is now likely above 0.003245, where a large volume rejection was observed. The price may retest the 0.00323–0.00324 zone as it consolidates.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price, indicating bearish momentum. For the daily timeframe, the 50 and 100-day averages are still above 0.003222, suggesting a short-term correction rather than a structural downtrend. However, the 200-day moving average has been breached, which may trigger further bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the last 8 hours, confirming bearish momentum, while the signal line showed a slow divergence. RSI fell into oversold territory (~29) at the close, indicating potential for a bounce, though bearish continuation cannot be ruled out. A close above 0.00324 could signal a short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff between 14:00 and 16:00 ET, pushing the price outside the lower band. The contraction before that period suggests a period of low conviction. Price has since stabilized near the middle band, suggesting a potential consolidation phase before a breakout attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Turnover spiked above $12,000 during the early evening ET selloff, confirming bearish pressure. However, volume decreased sharply after the low was set, suggesting a lack of follow-through. Divergence between falling price and declining volume may indicate a near-term bottom is in play, though confirmation is pending.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing high at 0.00328 and swing low at 0.003132, key levels to watch are the 38.2% at 0.003221 and 61.8% at 0.003169. The 38.2% level aligns closely with the current price, suggesting potential for either a bounce or further test of the 61.8% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy leverages a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band breakouts for trade signals. Specifically, a short entry is triggered when RSI crosses below 25 and the price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop above the upper band and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A long entry is considered when RSI crosses above 75 and the price breaks above the upper band, with a stop below the lower band. Over the past 24 hours, the strategy would have generated two short entries with one hitting the target and the other trailing within the stop range. The low divergence and strong bearish setup suggest the strategy could be viable in the next 48 hours if price remains below 0.003245.