Market Overview for IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• Price action for IQ/Tether was choppy, failing to break above $0.00328 after a late-night rally.
• Volatility increased significantly in the early morning hours with a strong volume spike.
• A bearish divergence appeared in RSI while price tested a key support at $0.003205–0.003215.
• Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction before a sharp expansion post 05:00 ET.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top near $0.003360–0.003427, signaling potential exhaustion in buying momentum.

Market Summary

Over the last 24 hours, IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) opened at $0.003229 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.003427, and fell to a low of $0.003166 before closing at $0.003238 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. Total volume traded was approximately 243,652,148.0, with a notional turnover estimated at $788,534.00.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a strong resistance at $0.003360–0.003427, where a bearish engulfing pattern formed after a sharp rally. This pattern suggests short-term bearish exhaustion. A key support level appears to be between $0.003205 and $0.003215, where price found temporary buying interest multiple times and reversed back higher. A morning session bearish divergence at $0.003201–0.003208 hinted at possible rejection from the support area.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed below the price during the late-night hours, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, price remained below the 50DMA and is pressing against the 200DMA, suggesting a possible continuation of the short-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed bearish momentum with a negative histogram during the morning hours, confirming the pullback. RSI reached oversold conditions at around 28–30 during the late afternoon, suggesting potential for a rebound but failed to sustain a bullish move. A bearish divergence in RSI from $0.003205 to $0.003208 indicated potential sell pressure despite price action bouncing.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly before 05:00 ET, indicating a period of consolidation. Price then broke out to the upside, reaching the upper band at $0.003427 before reversing back. The lower band acted as a magnet around $0.003195–0.003200 during the afternoon, confirming bearish bias as long as price remains below the midline.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early morning hours, coinciding with the sharp rally from $0.003200 to $0.003427. The highest volume candle was at 04:00 ET with 47.8 million contracts, indicating aggressive liquidation after the consolidation phase. However, price failed to hold above $0.003360 despite the high turnover, suggesting bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

A retracement from the recent high at $0.003427 to the low at $0.003166 showed key levels at $0.003290 (38.2%) and $0.003256 (61.8%). Price bounced at the 38.2% level during the morning before retreating, reinforcing that buyers are hesitant at these critical Fib levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy is based on a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band breakouts on the 15-minute chart. A long entry is triggered when price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band with a bullish RSI divergence and a close above the 20SMA. A short entry is triggered when price falls below the lower Bollinger Band with a bearish RSI divergence and a close below the 20SMA. Stops are placed at the nearest swing low/high, and take-profit targets are set at 1:2 risk-reward levels. This approach may suit the current choppy environment, as volatility and divergences are frequent. However, given the recent bearish divergence and the proximity to key support, a short-biased strategy appears more aligned with the current setup.