Market Overview for IQ/Tether (IQUSDT): 2025-09-16 to 2025-09-17

• Price climbed from 0.00342 to 0.003473 and retreated to 0.003415, showing a bullish attempt followed by profit-taking.
• Volatility spiked mid-day, with a high-to-low range of 0.000051, before narrowing in late hours.
• A large bullish candle at 22:30 ET (0.003457–0.003478) signaled short-term optimism but failed to hold gains.
• Volume spiked to 8.03M at 22:30 ET, confirming the bullish move, but turnover later diverged from price.
• RSI reached overbought (72) mid-day but dropped into neutral territory, suggesting temporary momentum exhaustion.

The IQ/Tether pair (IQUSDT) opened at 0.00343 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.003478, and a low of 0.003402, before closing at 0.003411 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 58.73 million, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $199,140 (at $1 = $1,000 IQUSDT turnover). The session was marked by a mid-day rally followed by a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed a bearish reversal pattern at the day’s high, characterized by a long upper wick on the 22:30 ET candle (0.003457–0.003478), signaling profit-taking. A key support level emerged around 0.003413–0.003416, where the price consolidated for several hours. A bullish engulfing pattern was briefly seen in the 05:30–06:00 ET window (0.003416–0.003423), suggesting short-term optimism. However, a long bearish candle at 10:30 ET (0.003403–0.003401) reinforced the 0.003413 support as a potential floor. The 0.003444–0.003461 range appears as a key resistance cluster that has been tested and failed multiple times.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs show a tightening crossover, with the 20-SMA crossing below the 50-SMA late in the session, hinting at a potential bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is positioned just below 0.003420, while the 100 and 200-period SMAs sit at 0.003423 and 0.003429 respectively. This suggests the pair is consolidating in a neutral zone between short-term and medium-term averages, with no clear directional bias emerging yet.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in late hours after a brief positive divergence, confirming bearish pressure. The histogram showed a contraction in momentum following the mid-day high, indicating a possible exhaustion of bullish buyers. The RSI peaked at 72 during the rally but dropped to 49 by the end of the session, suggesting the market is returning to equilibrium. While overbought conditions were present briefly, they were followed by an expected pullback rather than a continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the mid-day rally, with the price reaching the upper band at 0.003478. This volatility expansion was followed by a contraction as the price drifted back toward the mid-band (0.003423–0.003428). The current price sits near the lower band, indicating a possible oversold condition. However, the bands remain relatively narrow, suggesting that the market is waiting for a catalyst to break out of the range.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 22:30 ET (8.03 million) during the rally to 0.003478, with turnover aligning with the price movement. However, the price failed to hold above the 0.003444 level, and subsequent turnover began to lag, indicating weaker conviction in the bullish move. Late afternoon and early evening saw increased volume again at key support levels, confirming the 0.003413–0.003416 range as a critical psychological level. A divergence between falling price and rising volume in the 09:00–10:00 ET window signaled increased bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the swing high at 0.003478 and swing low at 0.003402, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels are at approximately 0.003455 and 0.003441, respectively. These levels align with key resistance clusters and were tested multiple times during the session. The 0.003441 level held firm as a key area of selling pressure, reinforcing its significance for near-term price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves identifying the 0.003413–0.003416 support range and the 0.003441–0.003461 resistance cluster as key price levels. A long entry could be triggered on a bullish break of the 0.003441 level with confirmation by the 20-SMA crossing above the 50-SMA. Conversely, a short setup may be considered if the price retests the 0.003413 support and fails to break above it, especially with bearish divergence in the MACD and RSI. This strategy would aim to capture directional bias in a consolidating market with well-defined levels and would rely on volume confirmation to validate entries.