Market Overview for IOTXJPY (IoTeX/Yen) – 2025-10-12

• IOTXJPY opened at 2.043, surged to 2.174, then retreated to close at 1.987, reflecting a volatile 24-hour swing.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped into oversold territory while volume remained inconsistent throughout the session.
• A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 2.05–2.06, but failed to hold amid a bearish breakdown from key support.
• Volatility expanded during a sharp decline from 2.155 to 1.989, with Bollinger Bands reflecting a wide range.
• High-volume spikes occurred during the upward thrust and early breakdown, suggesting possible accumulation or distribution.

IOTXJPY opened at 2.043 on October 11, reached a high of 2.174, and closed at 1.987 on October 12, marking a -8.61% drop over 24 hours. Total volume amounted to 7,655,210.0 units, with a notional turnover of ¥15,677,809.65. The pair experienced a sharp reversal after a bullish breakout, followed by a bearish breakdown from key psychological levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a strong bearish bias following a failed bullish breakout. A sharp sell-off emerged after a high-volume candle (2.155–2.056) on the 15-minute chart, with price dropping through key support levels at 2.05–2.06 and 2.00–1.99. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 2.05–2.06 but failed to hold amid a bearish breakdown. A large doji formed near 2.008–2.008, signaling indecision. Price also tested a prior support-turned-resistance at 2.029, which now appears as a key resistance level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, IOTXJPY closed below the 20- and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period SMA has crossed below the 20-period SMA, forming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is below the 100- and 200-period SMAs, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend, with the 50-period SMA acting as a dynamic resistance line. Price remains well below all three major moving averages, signaling potential further downside.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line during the breakdown. This indicates weakening bullish momentum. RSI has dipped into oversold territory (below 30), suggesting the potential for a short-term rebound or consolidation. However, the divergence between price and RSI is bearish, as price made a new low without a corresponding RSI low. The RSI remains in a descending trend, indicating ongoing bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility increased significantly during the downward leg, with IOTXJPY trading at the lower band for an extended period. Bollinger Bands have widened, reflecting increased uncertainty and a possible breakout or breakdown scenario. Price remains near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and the potential for a short-term bounce. However, without a clear reversal signal, the lower band remains a key support zone to watch.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off from 2.155 to 1.989, indicating heightened selling pressure. The largest volume candle was during the breakdown from 2.155 to 2.056, with over 229,513 units traded. Turnover spiked to ¥466,361.20 during this phase, signaling a high level of conviction in the move lower. Later in the session, volume dried up, indicating potential exhaustion in the bearish move. However, the divergence between price and volume remains a key concern, suggesting possible accumulation by longs near the 1.95–1.98 level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 2.05–2.174 swing, price has now tested the 61.8% level at 1.993 and is trading near the 78.6% level at 1.965. A break below 1.95 (the 88.6% retracement level) could trigger further downside. On the daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci level remains at 2.112, acting as a potential long-term target for a reversal. For a short-term rebound, the 38.2% level at 2.029 is a key target for bulls.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves using the 50-period SMA as a dynamic resistance line and entering short positions when price breaks below key support levels confirmed by bearish candlestick patterns, such as a bearish engulfing or a hanging man. The strategy could also incorporate RSI divergence as an exit signal, where a long entry is initiated if RSI crosses above 30 after a strong bearish move. Given the recent breakdown and oversold RSI, this approach could offer a high-probability short trade with defined risk levels at key Fibonacci retracement levels.