Market Overview for IOTXJPY on 2025-11-11

Summary
• IOTXJPY surged to 2.071 before retreating to close at 1.839, showing strong intraday volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern and a 3% stop-loss strategy failed to produce positive returns historically.
• Volume spiked during the rally but diverged from price as the pair corrected sharply later.

Opening Narrative

The IoTeX/Yen pair (IOTXJPY) opened at 1.782 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 2.071, and closed at 1.839 at 12:00 ET the next day. During the 24-hour window, total volume amounted to 7.5 million contracts, with notional turnover reaching ¥15.0 million. The pair exhibited sharp swings driven by uneven volume distribution.

Structure & Formations

IOTXJPY showed a key intraday high at 2.071, followed by a strong bearish engulfing pattern that confirmed short-term distribution. A 3% stop-loss trigger point would have been ~1.936–1.937, aligning with a minor support level. The low at 1.839 may mark a potential short-term floor if buying resumes.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20SMA (~1.965) and 50SMA (~1.982), suggesting a near-term bearish bias. For the daily chart, the 50DMA is at ~1.890, and the 200DMA at ~1.845, indicating potential support should the trend extend into the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after the intraday high, with a bearish crossover confirming momentum decay. RSI dipped to ~44, avoiding oversold territory and suggesting potential for a bounce. However, the absence of a bullish divergence weakens the case for a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the rally to 2.071, pushing the price beyond the upper band. A subsequent retrace has drawn the price into the lower half of the bands, suggesting compressed near-term volatility. A break below the lower band (~1.835) may confirm a deeper bearish phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 646,248 during the rally to 2.071, but the subsequent decline was marked by weaker volume (~113,001), indicating waning conviction. Notional turnover fell accordingly, highlighting a mismatch between price movement and on-chain activity. This divergence suggests potential for a correction or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the intraday swing from 1.839 to 2.071, the 38.2% retracement is at ~1.974, while the 61.8% level sits at ~1.924. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader move (~1.991–1.839) is at ~1.902, which could offer a potential near-term target if the trend continues downward.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “Buy on Bearish Engulfing with 3% Stop-Loss” strategy applied to IOTXJPY from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11 yielded a total return of -41.1%, with an average loss of ~8.3% per trade and no winning positions recorded. The use of a 3% stop-loss, while tight, failed to offset the downward bias inherent in the pair’s structure. The bearish engulfing pattern, which was identified during the intraday high, failed to produce a positive outcome historically. Traders may consider adding alternative exits, trend filters, or testing other setups for better risk-adjusted outcomes.