Market Overview for IOTXJPY on 2025-09-18

• IOTXJPY surged 5.2% on 15-minute charts, breaking above 3.960 after a prolonged consolidation phase.
• Volatility spiked mid-day, with Bollinger Band expansion and RSI reaching overbought territory (74) near 4.018.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 3.926–3.947, confirming a potential reversal from early session bearish pressure.
• Notional turnover increased by 83% in the last 6 hours, suggesting heightened speculative interest.
• MACD crossed into positive territory and remains bullish, but watch for divergence if volume fails to confirm further gains.

IOTXJPY opened at 3.855 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 4.002 at 12:00 ET, with an intra-day high of 4.018 and a low of 3.810. Total volume reached 496,855 contracts, with a notional turnover of ¥1,987,748. The price action suggests a shift from bearish to bullish momentum over the past 24 hours, supported by a breakout above key resistance at 3.950 and a sustained rally into the close.

The 15-minute chart shows a strong rally after a bearish pullback between 3.926 and 3.947, where a bullish engulfing pattern formed. This pattern confirmed the reversal, pushing the price back toward the upper end of the recent Bollinger Band expansion. Key support levels were identified at 3.926, 3.905, and 3.888, while the main resistances are now at 3.961, 3.972, and 3.990.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both turned upward, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias. The MACD has crossed above zero and remains positive, indicating sustained upward momentum. The RSI reached 74 by mid-day, signaling overbought conditions, but has since pulled back to 68 as of the close. This suggests the rally may pause, though not necessarily reverse, if volume remains strong.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout, with price closing near the upper band. This suggests a period of high volatility is ending, possibly leading to consolidation in the near term. The 50-period MA is approaching the 3.960 level, and if the price holds above it, the trend remains intact. A break below 3.926 could trigger a retest of 3.905, while a close above 4.006 may invite further long entry.

The 20-period Fibonacci retracement from the 3.810 to 4.018 swing identified key levels at 3.903 (38.2%), 3.940 (50%), and 3.977 (61.8%). The current price of 4.002 is just beyond the 61.8% level, suggesting the next potential target is near 4.053, with the 3.977 level acting as a critical support zone. A close below 3.940 may see the price retrace toward 3.903 and potentially 3.888.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy involves entering long positions after a bullish engulfing pattern forms near the 20-period MA, combined with a RSI above 50 and MACD crossover into positive territory. Stops are placed below the nearest support level, and targets are set at the next Fibonacci retracement level. Given today’s setup, this strategy would have triggered a long entry at 3.926–3.947 with a stop near 3.905 and a target at 3.977. A successful execution would have captured the 3.977–4.002 rally, validating the strategy's potential for short-term traders. However, confirmation on subsequent candles is necessary to avoid false breakouts.