Market Overview for IOTXJPY on 2025-09-14

• The IOTXJPY pair experienced a sharp decline, breaking below key support levels and forming bearish patterns.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions, with RSI dipping below 30, hinting at potential consolidation.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours of 2025-09-14, with high volume preceding a sharp selloff, signaling increased bear pressure.
• Price tested the 4.037 level twice in the last 12 hours, suggesting a potential short-term floor to monitor.
• Backtesting suggests a reversal strategy may be viable if the price stabilizes near Fibonacci 61.8% at 4.073.

The IOTXJPY pair opened at 4.132 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 4.191 before closing at 4.065 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14. The 24-hour period saw a low of 4.038, with total volume of 1,583,119.0 and a notional turnover of 6,551,579.75 JPY. Price action displayed a sharp bearish thrust following a volume-driven breakdown below 4.101.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around 22:30 ET on 2025-09-13, opening at 4.17 and closing at 4.181 after a high of 4.181—confirming bear pressure. A deep doji appeared at 00:30 ET on 2025-09-14, signaling indecision. Key support levels emerged at 4.038 and 4.077, with 4.116 and 4.132 acting as initial resistances. A bearish flag pattern formed following the 22:15 ET breakout from 4.132 to 4.17.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA (death cross) during the 02:30–03:45 ET window, confirming the bearish bias. The 50/100/200 daily moving averages are not available, but the intraday momentum strongly suggests the price may remain below its 50-period average for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 23:00 ET, with the signal line crossing below it, amplifying bearish momentum. RSI hit a 24-hour low of 29 at 08:15 ET, suggesting potential oversold conditions. However, the divergence between price and RSI remains weak—RSI failing to rise while the price declined in the 04:45–05:45 ET window. A rebound may be imminent if RSI crosses back above 30.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 00:00 and 04:00 ET, pushing the price well below the lower band. The price has since remained within the bands, suggesting a consolidation phase. The 20-period BB width was at a 24-hour high, indicating a potential pause before a new move.

Volume & Turnover

The largest single-volume candle occurred at 22:15 ET, with 43,521 IOTX traded and a high of 4.17—suggesting a large sell-side intervention. Turnover spiked to 178,738.85 JPY at 05:15 ET as the price declined to 4.102. The 24-hour volume was unevenly distributed, with most activity between 22:00 and 06:00 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key retracements of the 4.132–4.191 bullish swing include 4.17 (38.2%), 4.154 (50%), and 4.138 (61.8%). The price has stalled near the 4.138 level, suggesting a potential bounce or a breakdown. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the 4.038–4.191 move is at 4.073—a potential support level to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described suggests a short-term reversal trade if the price consolidates near the 4.038–4.073 range and shows positive divergence in RSI. Given the current setup, a long entry near 4.065 with a stop just below 4.038 may be viable, targeting the 4.073–4.085 range. The bearish engulfing pattern and deep doji near the 4.065 level suggest a potential turning point for a short-term bounce.