Market Overview for IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY): Bearish Momentum and Key Support Tests

• IOTXJPY declines 4.5% over the last 24 hours, closing at 3.358 with renewed bearish momentum.
• RSI drops below 30, signaling potential oversold conditions, while volume rises sharply after midday.
• Price breaks below key support at 3.43–3.45, with Fibonacci 61.8% at 3.39 as a near-term target.
• Bollinger Bands expand in the afternoon, indicating increased volatility and consolidation ahead.
• MACD trends lower with bearish crossover, confirming weakening bullish momentum.

The IOTXJPY pair opened at 3.477 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.358 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The 24-hour range spanned from a high of 3.514 to a low of 3.358. Total volume reached 662,518, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥2,249,045, calculated using mid-range price estimates. The downward bias was confirmed by a strong break below the 3.43–3.45 support zone, followed by a pullback to 3.374 and a retest of the 3.358 low.

The 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish structure, with several engulfing patterns confirming the trend lower. A doji formed at 3.358 after a sharp decline, suggesting short-term hesitation. The 20-period moving average (3.46) and 50-period MA (3.47) both cross below the price, reinforcing bearish sentiment. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period MAs are diverging, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.

MACD continues to trend lower, with the fast line crossing below the slow line, suggesting ongoing bearish momentum. RSI has dropped into oversold territory (<30), which may attract short-term buyers or indicate a deeper correction. Bollinger Bands are widening after midday, reflecting heightened volatility. Price appears to oscillate within the lower 20% of the bands, consistent with a consolidation phase after the recent drop. The 3.358 level aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the recent high, offering a potential near-term support target.

Volume spiked significantly in the afternoon session, especially between 03:00 and 05:00 ET on 2025-10-04, with a sharp move down to 3.358 accompanied by high volume. This confirms bearish conviction. However, turnover did not increase proportionally, suggesting mixed participation or liquidity constraints. The price-volume divergence in the early morning hours indicates weak follow-through from the prior bearish move.
The market appears to be in a consolidation phase near the 3.358–3.374 range, with key support levels now at 3.358 and 3.345 (38.2% retracement). If the pair fails to rebound above 3.374, a test of 3.335–3.338 (61.8% Fibonacci) could follow. A sharp rebound above 3.392 would signal a potential reversal, but this is less likely in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
The provided backtesting strategy focuses on short-term bearish setups triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern in a downtrend, with confirmation from RSI entering oversold territory and a volume spike. A trailing stop-loss is initiated once the price drops 1.5% below the entry point, and the target is set at 1.5x the risk.
Applying this to the IOTXJPY recent action, a trade would have been triggered around 19:30–20:00 ET on 2025-10-03, as the pair formed a strong engulfing bearish candle and RSI dropped below 30. Volume surged during this move, confirming the setup. The stop-loss would have been placed at 3.514–3.52, and the target at 3.374–3.358. This aligns with the actual price movement, suggesting the strategy would have been profitable under these conditions.