Market Overview for IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY): 24-Hour Technical Summary

• IOTXJPY dropped 7.5% in a 24-hour window, with a notable selloff after 21:30 ET.
• Strong bearish momentum persisted through RSI compression and low volatility.
• Volume spiked at the 21:30 ET candle, signaling increased selling pressure.
• Price tested a critical 1.71 support level twice before rebounding.
• Bollinger Band contraction suggests consolidation ahead of a potential breakout.

Opening Narrative

At 12:00 ET–1, IOTXJPY opened at 1.833, with price falling to a 24-hour low of 1.697 before closing at 1.697 at 12:00 ET. The pair experienced a 7.5% decline over the period. Total volume reached 1,081,967, while turnover was approximately 1,877,619.11 (notional value).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a clear bearish trend, with a significant drop after 21:30 ET. A sharp bearish engulfing pattern formed between 21:30 and 22:45 ET as the price collapsed from 1.738 to 1.729 and then fell further to 1.71. A key support level at 1.71 held twice, with price rebounding after minor retracements. A doji formed at 01:00–01:15 ET, signaling indecision and potential consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price spent most of the session below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is likely at a level between 1.8–1.83, placing the current price well below key bullish benchmarks. The 200-period MA, if calculated, would likely be above 1.9, further emphasizing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative early in the session and remained in bearish territory, with no signs of bullish divergence. The RSI indicator moved from overbought (above 60 early in the session) to oversold territory (below 20 by 04:00 ET), indicating a strong sell-off with limited buying interest. Momentum appears to have exhausted itself, but without a significant rebound, the pair may remain range-bound near 1.71–1.73.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described relies on identifying RSI overbought conditions and exiting positions at predefined support levels. For IOTXJPY, a potential overbought RSI threshold could have been triggered during the initial 16:00–17:00 ET window, when price was above 1.83 and the RSI was likely in overbought territory. An exit rule based on a 50-day SMA or a fixed percentage retracement (e.g., 5%) would likely have captured the selloff. Modeling this strategy would require defining exact thresholds, exit conditions, and whether to short or close longs. Clarifying these will help construct a robust test framework.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent most of the session within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, with a brief expansion occurring after 21:30 ET. The bands constricted slightly around 04:00–06:00 ET, suggesting a potential breakout attempt. However, price remained below the 20-period MA, indicating that volatility expansion may not lead to a bullish breakout without a strong reversal candle.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 21:30 ET (555,568 units) as price dropped from 1.729 to 1.71. This was the largest single-candle trade and coincided with a significant drop in price. Turnover followed the same pattern, with a sharp drop after the 21:30 ET candle. This divergence suggests that the selloff was driven by large, likely institutional, trades rather than organic retail activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 1.833–1.697 move, the 1.738 level corresponds to the 23.6% retracement, the 1.71 level to the 38.2% level, and the 1.697 to the 50% level. Price tested the 1.71 level twice, suggesting a potential short-term floor. A move below 1.697 could test the 61.8% retracement near 1.669.

Forward-Looking View

While the immediate support level at 1.71 appears to have held, the pair remains in a strong bearish trend. A retest of the 1.73–1.74 level could offer a short-term reversal opportunity, but without a significant increase in volume or a bullish reversal pattern, the bias remains to the downside. Investors should monitor the 1.697 level for confirmation of further downside. Risk of a breakdown below 1.697 is high in the next 24 hours.