Market Overview for IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY): 24-Hour Technical Summary

• IOTXJPY fell 6.2% over 24 hours, closing at 3.684 after a sharp sell-off from 3.778.
• Volatility spiked mid-cycle, with a 15-minute drop of 2.7% on increased volume.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 25, suggesting potential bounce, but momentum remains bearish.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, confirming heightened price turbulence.
• Divergence between volume and price during the late sell-off indicates weak conviction in the downward move.

Market Performance and Price Action

IOTXJPY opened at 3.778 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 3.784 before closing at 3.684 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. The pair experienced a bearish 24-hour session, with a low of 3.672. Total volume across the 24-hour window amounted to 1,512,174.0, while total turnover reached approximately 5,584,123 JPY (assuming constant IOTX price across candles for estimation). Price action showed a clear breakdown from key intraday resistance levels, with no significant countertrend pushback.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified at 3.676 and 3.668, both of which held during the sharp sell-off. Resistance was seen between 3.776 and 3.784, but failed to contain the downward momentum. A long lower shadow in the early morning session (051500-053000 ET) hinted at some buying interest, but bearish volume dominated the session. The candle at 091500 ET (open 3.710, close 3.691) formed a bearish engulfing pattern, confirming the downtrend. A doji at 001500 ET also signaled indecision at the start of the session.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key support levels, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period SMA crossed below the 20-period, forming a death cross. For daily timeframes, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs trended lower, indicating a broader bearish bias. MACD remained bearish throughout the session, with the histogram expanding as the decline deepened. RSI dropped below 30 during the late hours, suggesting the pair might be approaching oversold territory, though the bearish trend remains intact.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early hours, with a period of sharp price contraction observed at the beginning of the session. By 091500–093000 ET, the bands widened to over 1.5% in width, indicating increased volatility and uncertainty. Price remained below the lower band for several intervals, suggesting continued pressure from sellers. The volatility expansion coincided with a large volume spike at 091500 ET, indicating strong bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major swing from 3.778 (2025-09-20 12:00) to 3.672 (2025-09-21 11:45), key levels at 3.743 (38.2%), 3.717 (50%), and 3.692 (61.8%) were tested and rejected. Price action failed to hold at the 61.8% level and continued lower, signaling bearish momentum. A potential bounce from 3.668 is being watched as it aligns with the 78.6% retracement level of a prior upward move.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

While volume spiked during the sell-off (notably between 091500–093000 ET), the price did not confirm a strong breakout to the downside after the initial 3.743 level. This suggests some divergence between volume and price, indicating possible exhaustion in the bearish move. The final hours of the session saw a moderate volume rebound, but without a significant price reaction, it appears buyers have not yet re-entered the market with conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed price structure and volume dynamics, a potential backtesting strategy could be to go short at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (3.717) with a stop above the 38.2% level (3.743) and a target at the 61.8% level (3.692). This setup would have been triggered during the 15-minute candle at 093000 ET, with the trade closing short as price broke below 3.692 by 11:45 ET. Given the RSI’s oversold reading and the bearish MACD divergence, an exit signal could be generated if the RSI fails to close above 30 for three consecutive candles, indicating a potential reversal or consolidation phase.