Market Overview for IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY): 24-Hour Analysis

• Price drifted lower after a brief spike to ¥3.658, closing at ¥3.576 near the 24-hour low.
• Low volume in most 15-minute intervals; large volume clusters at ¥3.658 and ¥3.548 indicate key turning points.
• RSI entered oversold territory briefly, but momentum remains bearish with no clear reversal signals.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, pushing price outside Bollinger Bands, but failed to sustain higher levels.
• A 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern emerged at the 09:00–09:30 ET window but failed to trigger a strong rebound.

Overview and Key Price Action

IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY) opened at ¥3.619 on 2025-10-09, drifted higher briefly to ¥3.658, and closed at ¥3.576 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was ¥3.548–¥3.658. Total traded volume reached 150,548 IOTX with a notional turnover of ¥529,188, indicating moderate liquidity and uneven price pressure. The price trend shows a bearish bias with minimal bullish follow-through.

Structure & Formations

The price structure reveals a key resistance near ¥3.658, where buying interest briefly held but failed to sustain. A bearish reversal can be observed from that level, followed by a breakdown to ¥3.548. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at ¥3.590–¥3.561 at 09:00–09:30 ET, but it was quickly negated by a bearish continuation. Several doji and spinning top patterns in the ¥3.608–¥3.620 range suggest indecision and potential accumulation or distribution.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price is currently below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-period line is sloping downward, indicating weak near-term momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50- and 200-period moving averages suggest a broader bearish bias, with price lingering below key support levels.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line remains below zero, with a bearish divergence forming in the histogram. RSI has recently entered oversold territory, hitting a low of 28, but failed to trigger a significant bounce, suggesting weak short-term buying interest. The momentum appears to be waning rather than reversing, and further bearish momentum is likely unless a strong reversal candle forms.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded mid-day, with price spiking above the upper Bollinger Band at ¥3.658 before retracing. Price has since consolidated closer to the lower band, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend. The recent contraction in the Bollinger Band width after the expansion indicates a possible pause in volatility, which may precede a breakout or a continuation of the current bearish phase.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked at ¥3.658 and ¥3.548, where the price made key turning points. These spikes confirm the significance of those levels but also highlight distribution and accumulation dynamics. Turnover aligns with volume, with higher notional turnover at those key price points. However, volume remains low in most 15-minute intervals, indicating a lack of conviction in both bullish and bearish phases.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 15-minute swing from ¥3.548 to ¥3.658 shows a 38.2% retracement at ¥3.619 and a 61.8% retracement at ¥3.591—both of which were tested during the session. Price is currently near the 50% Fibonacci level at ¥3.600. A move below the 61.8% level could trigger a retest of ¥3.548, while a rebound above the 38.2% level might attract near-term buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy suggests using a combination of RSI divergence and volume confirmation to identify short-term reversal opportunities. Specifically, a long entry could be triggered on a bullish RSI divergence with a confirmed volume spike. Conversely, a short entry might be signaled when price breaks below key moving averages with increasing volume. Given the recent bearish momentum and lack of strong reversal signals, the strategy would likely remain in short exposure unless a compelling bullish divergence forms near ¥3.576.