Market Overview: IoTeX/Yen (IOTXJPY) on 2025-10-10

• IOTXJPY opened at 3.619 and closed at 3.574, with a 24-hour high of 3.776 and low of 3.526.
• Price showed a bearish reversal after reaching intraday highs, with volume spiking during the decline.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions near 30, while MACD showed bearish divergence in the final hours.
• Volatility expanded mid-day as price broke out of a Bollinger Band contraction.
• Fibonacci levels around 3.62–3.64 acted as key resistance during the early morning recovery.

The IoTeX/Yen pair (IOTXJPY) opened at 3.619 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 3.574 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10, with a high of 3.776 and a low of 3.526 during the session. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period amounted to 1,049,219.0 IOTX, while notional turnover was 3,525,753.0 JPY. The price action reflected a sharp reversal from bullish momentum to bearish pressure, particularly after a midday rally.

On the 15-minute chart, price formed several key patterns including a bearish engulfing pattern at 3.776 and a potential bullish engulfing reversal at 3.680. Notable support levels emerged at 3.62 and 3.574, with the latter showing a strong rejection as price fell below it toward the close. Resistance levels at 3.641 and 3.692 appeared to stall upward momentum multiple times. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed bearishly below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias.

The RSI indicator moved into oversold territory near 30 toward the close, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, this was not supported by volume, which was relatively muted during the rebound. MACD showed bearish divergence in the final hours of the session, with the line dipping below the signal line as price made a false attempt to recover. Bollinger Bands indicated a contraction in the early hours, followed by a significant expansion as volatility increased mid-day. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting exhaustion in the current downward move.

Fibonacci retracement levels showed 61.8% at 3.62 and 38.2% at 3.65, with price testing the former during a recovery attempt. The daily 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages all showed bearish alignment with the price trend. Volume and notional turnover confirmed the bearish move after midday, particularly in the 15:30–15:45 ET candle, when 179,307 IOTX changed hands. However, there was a divergence in volume during the final upward attempt, where volume was relatively light despite a notable price increase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages as dynamic support and resistance on the 15-minute chart. A sell signal could be triggered when price breaks below the 20-period moving average with increasing volume, as seen in the 15:30–15:45 ET candle. A stop-loss could be placed above the 50-period MA or a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level. Conversely, a buy signal might be considered on a rejection at the lower Bollinger Band or a bullish engulfing pattern near the 3.68–3.692 support zone. This setup would allow for capturing short-term mean reversion while managing risk with tight stops. The RSI’s oversold reading near 30 also suggests that a bounce could be imminent, making the strategy more responsive to overbought/oversold conditions.