Market Overview for IoTeX/Bitcoin (IOTXBTC) – October 30, 2025

• IOTXBTC traded within a narrow range (1.00e-07–1.10e-07) for most of the 24-hour period.
• A sudden spike in volume and price occurred at 03:45 ET, marking the first significant move.
• Low RSI and flat Bollinger Bands suggest subdued volatility and momentum.
• A potential breakout attempt at 13:00 ET was confirmed but failed to sustain.
• Final close remains near session lows, indicating bearish bias for near term.

The IoTeX/Bitcoin (IOTXBTC) pair opened at 1.00e-07 on October 29 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.00e-07 by 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour session saw a high of 1.10e-07 and a low of 1.00e-07, with minimal directional movement overall. Total volume for the period was 940,342.0, while notional turnover amounted to 98.4. These figures reflect subdued trading interest amid a lack of price action.

The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages have remained tightly clustered around the price throughout the session, reinforcing the lack of trend. A breakout attempt occurred at 03:45 ET when volume surged to 25,114.0, and price briefly hit 1.10e-07, but momentum failed to carry forward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained below 30 for most of the day, indicating oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram showed minimal divergence, suggesting weak momentum both long and short.

Bollinger Bands have remained compressed throughout, pointing to a period of consolidation. Price has spent the majority of the 24 hours at the lower band, indicating potential support at 1.00e-07. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent intra-day swing high of 1.10e-07 align closely with the 1.00e-07 level, suggesting that a break below could trigger further downside. A small bearish engulfing pattern formed after the failed breakout, adding to the case for near-term caution.

Looking ahead, the market appears to be testing key support around 1.00e-07, and a break below this could trigger a larger selloff, especially if volume picks up. Conversely, a retest of the 1.10e-07 level with strong volume could signal renewed bullish intent. Investors should closely monitor for divergence in volume and price as confirmation or rejection signals.

Backtest Hypothesis

To rigorously test the “Resistance-Level Breakout” strategy on IOTXBTC, we propose using a 50-day look-back window to identify breakout events. A breakout is defined when the close price exceeds the highest close price from the past 50 trading days. For the back-test, we will use the closing price as the standard price input. A 30-day holding window will be used to measure post-breakout performance, with no stop-loss or take-profit triggers to maintain a pure event study. Historical daily IOTXBTC data will be sourced from January 1, 2022, to October 30, 2025, to ensure a robust sample size. This approach aligns with the technical indicators discussed earlier, where resistance levels and breakout attempts are key to understanding the underlying price behavior.