Market Overview for IOTA/Tether (IOTAUSDT) on 2025-11-06

• IOTA/USDT dips 2.5% over 24 hours amid bearish momentum and fading bullish bias.
• Strong volume expansion during afternoon ET suggests increased bearish conviction.
• RSI near overbought levels suggests possible near-term exhaustion in the short-term downtrend.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with price hovering near the lower band.
• 15-minute chart reveals key support at 0.1290, tested twice with limited rejection.

Price Action and Formations

IOTA/Tether (IOTAUSDT) opened at 0.1298 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1295 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.1317 and a low of 0.1262, recording a total volume of 13,404,700 IOTA and a notional turnover of approximately $1.71 million over the 24-hour period. The price action appears to be consolidating below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, while the daily chart shows bearish momentum with the price below all three major moving averages (50, 100, and 200-day).

On the 15-minute chart, a bearish engulfing pattern appears around 2025-1105 181500, confirming a short-term bearish reversal from a bullish trend. A notable bearish divergence is visible in the MACD at 2025-1105 184500, where price makes a higher high but the MACD makes a lower high, suggesting weakening bullish momentum.

MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands

MACD is currently in negative territory with bearish divergence forming as price and momentum diverge, signaling potential further downside. RSI has dipped to 42, indicating neutral momentum, with no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. However, the RSI was previously near overbought levels at 72 during the intraday high of 0.1317, suggesting short-term overextension that may have contributed to the recent correction.

Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with a 20-period standard deviation of ~0.0018. Price is currently near the lower band at 0.1262–0.1295, suggesting a potential oversold bounce could occur if a short-term rebound develops. A volatility contraction is visible in the late morning hours, followed by a breakout and expansion to the downside.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume surged sharply in the afternoon and early evening ET, with the most significant increase occurring at 2025-1106 144500 (1.38 million IOTA traded), coinciding with a sharp decline from 0.1296 to 0.1267. The spike in volume validates the bearish move, indicating accumulation or profit-taking by short sellers. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with turnover increasing alongside price declines, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Divergence between price and volume appears limited, with both moving in the same direction. However, the absence of volume during the earlier rebound suggests weak conviction in any short-term buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the major swing from 0.1317 (high) to 0.1262 (low), the key retracement levels for the next 24 hours are:

• 23.6% = 0.1300
• 38.2% = 0.1294
• 50.0% = 0.1289
• 61.8% = 0.1284

Price is currently near the 38.2% retracement level at 0.1294. A close above this level could indicate a possible bounce, but failure to hold it might accelerate the decline toward the 61.8% level at 0.1284.

Backtest Hypothesis

To formalize the “close the position at the next support” rule, a logical and objective method is to use a break of the most recent swing low (Option 2). This method is well-suited for capturing short-term trend exhaustion in a bearish market. Using this rule, a sell signal would be triggered when price falls below the most recent swing low detected over the past N days (e.g., 5 or 7 days). This aligns with the observed bearish divergence and engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart.

Incorporating MACD top divergence detection since 2022-01-01 can enhance entry timing for short positions. Exit signals would then be defined by the swing low break method. A backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-05 would assess the effectiveness of this strategy on a daily basis. Metrics such as total return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown will be essential for evaluating performance. This approach could help identify optimal short-term entries and exits for a volatility-aware strategy in a choppy market.