Market Overview for Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) on 2025-10-10

• ICP/USDT closed lower at $4.238 after forming bearish continuation patterns.• Price dropped below key support levels, with RSI approaching oversold territory.• Volatility spiked sharply during the 15:30–15:45 ET session, matching a large volume spike.• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly, indicating heightened uncertainty.• MACD turned negative, suggesting bearish momentum remains intact.

Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) opened at $4.323 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $4.459 during the session. The pair closed at $4.238 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10, after touching a low of $4.207. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 923,015.59 ICP, with a notional turnover of $4,031,877.84. The move reflected increased bearish pressure after a key breakout failed, triggering stop-loss cascades.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern displayed a strong bearish bias, especially after the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern at the top of a short-term resistance cluster around $4.43. This was followed by a long bearish candle on 1545 ET, closing at the low of $4.207. A series of doji formed in the $4.28–$4.32 range, indicating indecision and potential support. The price failed to reclaim key psychological levels above $4.35, reinforcing the bearish narrative. The final leg down from $4.43 to $4.28 suggests a possible breakdown of the previous consolidation pattern.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period 15-minute) crossed below the price in the late ET hours, confirming the bearish shift. On a daily basis, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100- and 200-period lines, forming a death cross. This reinforced the bearish momentum, especially as the price traded below the 200-day MA for the first time since the recent consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after 4:00 ET, with the histogram expanding as bearish momentum built. The RSI fell below 30, indicating oversold territory, but failed to show a bounce, signaling prolonged bearish pressure. The divergence between the price and RSI suggests exhaustion may not be immediate, and further downward pressure remains likely.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 15:30–15:45 ET window, with the price closing near the lower band at $4.207. This volatility spike coincided with a large volume bar, suggesting panic selling or stop-loss triggering. The width of the bands has widened over the past 30 minutes, indicating a high level of uncertainty and potential for continued downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 15:30–15:45 ET session, with a turnover of $1,046,667.30. This was the largest single candle in terms of dollar volume during the 24-hour period. The volume and price action aligned well, with no divergence observed. This confirms the strength of the bearish move and suggests significant participation from institutional or algorithmic players.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent swing from $4.207 to $4.459, the current close of $4.238 aligns with the 0.0% to 38.2% level, suggesting the move down could extend toward the 61.8% level at $4.111. On the 15-minute chart, the price has broken below a key 50% retracement level, indicating that the short-term downtrend is intact. A retest of the 61.8% level could provide confirmation for further bearish moves.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish structure and strong technical indicators aligning with the downtrend, a possible backtest strategy could involve shorting the pair on a breakout below the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($4.32), with a stop above the 50% level ($4.35) and a target aligned with the 61.8% level ($4.111). This setup would capitalize on the current volatility and confirmation of the breakdown in the key resistance zone. A trailing stop could be added once the price moves below the 50% level to secure gains while managing risk. This approach would be best tested over a historical period of similar consolidation and breakout scenarios to validate its robustness and refine entry/exit parameters.