Market Overview for Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• Price dropped from $4.545 to $4.312 over 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• Negative momentum in RSI and declining volume suggest bearish sentiment.
• Price remains below key moving averages, reinforcing a downtrend.
• Bollinger Band contraction in early hours signaled low volatility before a sharp decline.
• Turnover surged during the selloff, aligning with price movement.

Internet Computer/Tether (ICPUSDT) opened at $4.472 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $4.58 and a low of $4.312 before closing at $4.324 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 732,618.95, with a notional turnover of approximately $3,161,576. The price action reflects a bearish consolidation phase with a decisive breakdown from key resistance.

Structure & Formations

The price has been trending downward, forming bearish structures such as a bearish engulfing pattern near the $4.515 level and multiple hanging man and inverted hammer candles indicating potential exhaustion in the short-term bounces. Key support levels identified include $4.325 and $4.293, with a notable test of $4.312. Resistance appears clustered between $4.35 and $4.40, which may act as a psychological and technical barrier for any near-term rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, ICPUSDT is trading well below its 20 and 50-period moving averages, signaling a strong bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period EMAs are aligned downward, confirming the long-term trend. The price appears to be trending below all major MAs, suggesting further downward momentum could continue unless there is a strong and sustained rally to retest the 50-period MA as a potential trigger for a reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been negative throughout the session, with a recent sharp bearish crossover reinforcing the downtrend. RSI is currently at 35, indicating oversold territory, though this may not be enough to trigger a reversal without accompanying bullish volume or price action. Momentum remains bearish, with no signs of a near-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show significant volatility expansion during the late evening to early morning hours, consistent with the price breaking through multiple support levels. The bands have widened, indicating increased market uncertainty and selling pressure. Price is currently resting near the lower band at $4.312, suggesting a possible short-term bottom or a continuation of the downtrend if the level fails.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has spiked during the selloff, especially in the hours between 02:00 ET and 05:00 ET, when the price dropped from $4.45 to $4.312. Turnover also increased during this period, aligning with the price movement. However, there is no divergence between price and volume to suggest a potential bottom. Instead, the high volume during the decline supports the idea of a continuation in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $4.545 to $4.312, the 61.8% retracement level sits at $4.417, which has acted as a resistance and a potential bounce point. The 50% level at $4.429 was tested but failed to hold. On the daily chart, the recent leg down from $4.58 to $4.312 aligns with a 61.8% retracement of the larger bullish move. These levels may become relevant if the price attempts a recovery.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy relies on a combination of RSI and volume divergence signals to identify potential turning points in the trend. Specifically, it looks for RSI entering oversold territory (<30) while volume increases, signaling accumulation. In this case, RSI reached 35 with strong selling volume, suggesting accumulation is limited. A more effective entry point might require a stronger volume spike and a clear reversal candlestick pattern. This strategy could be refined by incorporating Fibonacci levels to define stop-loss and take-profit levels, as demonstrated in the $4.312–$4.417 range.