Market Overview: Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) – November 14, 2025

Summary
• Price declined from 0.1278 to 0.1215, hitting a 24-hour low of 0.1156 after a sharp drop at 04:45 ET.
• Volume spiked to ~1.7 million at the bottom, but price failed to rebound, suggesting bearish conviction.
• RSI dropped into oversold territory (below 30), but lack of follow-through buying raises bearish caution.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at 0.1278 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1215 on 2025-11-14 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.1279 and low of 0.1156 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to ~16.9 million, and total turnover was ~$2.06 million, indicating moderate but choppy price movement.

Structure & Formations

Price formation showed a sharp bearish breakdown from the 0.125–0.127 resistance cluster, forming a key bearish engulfing pattern around 04:45 ET. A doji at 0.1204–0.1207 (04:30–04:45) signaled indecision but failed to trigger a reversal. Key support levels include 0.1200 and 0.1179, both of which were tested and broken.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA both dipped below the price action, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, price remains below the 50DMA and 200DMA, suggesting medium-term bearish bias. The 100DMA (not computed here but historically relevant) likely sits above 0.1245, further confirming the downward drift.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and remained below the zero line, with a bearish crossover and declining histogram. RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a bounce—classic bear trap setup. The inability to respond to oversold RSI raises the risk of further downside.

Bollinger Bands

Price collapsed below the lower band of the 20-period Bollinger Bands, hitting the 0.1156 low, while volatility remained elevated. A contraction is expected as price consolidates near key support levels, but a breakout below 0.1179 could trigger further technical stops.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 04:45 ET (~1.7 million), coinciding with the breakdown to 0.1156. However, volume declined sharply afterward, suggesting exhaustion. Notional turnover moved in line with price, with no divergence noted. The final 6-hour session saw reduced participation, suggesting a lull after the sharp sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the swing high of 0.1279 to the low of 0.1156, the 0.1197 level corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The 38.2% level (~0.1225) was briefly tested but failed as resistance. These levels are likely to attract attention if the market attempts a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest applied a simple RSI-based shorting strategy (RSI > 70 triggers a short, closed the next day). Given the recent bearish momentum and overbought-to-oversold RSI swing, this strategy would have captured a portion of the selloff starting from the 0.1278 open. However, the strategy’s one-day holding period and lack of filtering for volatility or volume signals could miss longer-term moves or false signals during low-liquidity periods. The performance report suggests that while the system is profitable historically, it may face challenges in highly volatile or range-bound markets.