Market Overview for Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) on 2025-11-10

Summary
• Price declined from 0.1372 to 0.1346 on 15-min chart amid bearish momentum.
• Volume surged at key 0.133–0.134 level, suggesting possible support.
• RSI remains below 40, indicating weak near-term momentum.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at 0.1372 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, and closed at 0.1346 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.1440 and 0.1285 over the past 24 hours. Total 15-min volume reached 40.8 million, with a notional turnover of approximately $5.53 million, highlighting a steady but bearish flow of capital.

The price action formed several bearish patterns, notably a series of lower highs and lower lows from 18:30 to 21:00 ET. Key support levels emerged around the 0.133–0.134 zone, where the candlestick action showed consolidation and increased volume. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-min chart remained bearish, with the 50-line above the 20-line, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. On the daily timeframe, the price is trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The MACD line remained below the signal line throughout most of the 24-hour period, with negative histogram values, reinforcing the bearish momentum. RSI hovered in the 30–40 range, suggesting the pair is in a weak but not overbought condition. While not reaching oversold territory, the RSI has not shown signs of a reversal, which may suggest further consolidation or a continuation of the bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands reflected a moderate volatility expansion, with price frequently testing the lower band between 0.1315 and 0.1325. This pattern suggests that buyers were active at the lower end of the band, potentially indicating a short-term floor. However, the lack of a strong rebound above the 0.1345–0.1350 range suggests that the upper band resistance is strong.

Volume and Turnover Insights

Volume distribution showed a significant increase at the 0.133–0.134 level, particularly around 20:45–21:15 ET and again from 00:15 to 01:15 ET, which coincided with price consolidation. Notional turnover mirrored this, peaking during these intervals. The divergence between volume and price decline during the 01:30–03:00 ET period suggests a potential short-term stabilizing force, but further confirmation is needed.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

On the 15-min chart, price has found support near the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 0.140–0.1315 swing. The 38.2% and 50% levels are currently at 0.1349 and 0.1355, respectively. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from a prior bear wave is around 0.1300, which could serve as a key psychological support or turning point if this trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtested RSI-based long strategy with a MACD death-cross exit has proven to be highly unprofitable for INITUSDT over the 2022–2025 period. With a total return of –62.9% and a maximum drawdown of 71.8%, the strategy struggled due to the persistent bearish bias of the pair. The slow response time of the MACD death-cross exit allowed losses to accumulate before trades were closed. Additionally, the absence of stop-loss or take-profit rules amplified drawdowns. A more effective approach might include tighter stop-loss thresholds (8–10%), shorter MACD parameters for faster exits, and entry filters such as RSI rebounding above 35–40 to avoid deep bear cycles.

Forward-looking, Initia/Tether appears to remain in a bearish phase, with the 0.133–0.134 zone acting as a critical support cluster. While buyers may test this level for a short-term bounce, a break below it could open the door to further declines. Investors should closely monitor RSI for signs of oversold conditions and volume for confirmation of any potential reversal. As always, bearish momentum can be volatile, so risk management remains critical in the next 24 hours.