Market Overview for Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) - 2025-11-08

Summary
• Price opens at 0.1293 and closes at 0.1275 with a high of 0.1361 and a low of 0.1264.
• Volume remains elevated in the late hours of 2025-11-07, followed by a gradual decline.
• Momentum slows with RSI hovering near neutral levels and MACD showing diverging signals.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) closed at 0.1275 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08, after opening at 0.1293 the previous day. The pair reached a 24-hour high of 0.1361 and fell to a low of 0.1264. The total volume traded was 52,673,420.2 and the notional turnover amounted to 6,934,315.0 USDT.

On the 15-minute chart, the price formed multiple bearish patterns, including a falling wedge and a bearish engulfing candle in the early hours of 2025-11-08. A key resistance appears to be forming near 0.1328–0.1332, where price repeatedly failed to hold above, suggesting bearish pressure. Notable support levels are identified at 0.1290 and 0.1264, the latter of which was briefly tested during the session.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both crossed below the price, indicating a short-term bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day moving averages are in a bearish crossover, which aligns with the downward bias. The RSI, currently at 50, suggests neutral momentum, while the MACD line has moved below the signal line, indicating a weakening bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands have expanded in the past 48 hours, reflecting increased volatility, with price frequently trading near the lower band, hinting at a consolidating bearish bias.

The 24-hour volume profile showed a noticeable spike in the late evening of 2025-11-07, particularly around 21:00 ET, when the price was near 0.1353. However, as the session progressed into 2025-11-08, volume and turnover both declined, suggesting a lack of follow-through buying pressure and increased bearish conviction. No significant divergence between volume and price action was observed, which implies bearish continuation is likely in the near term.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high (0.1361) to the low (0.1264) suggest key levels to watch: 0.1319 (38.2%) and 0.1291 (61.8%). So far, price has stalled near the 38.2% level, which may act as a key area for near-term rejection or breakout.

The pair may test lower support levels in the coming 24 hours, with a risk of breaking below 0.1264 should the 0.1290 level fail. Investors should remain cautious of a potential continuation of the bearish trend, especially with the RSI remaining neutral and MACD showing bearish momentum.

Looking ahead, traders may want to monitor the 0.1290–0.1319 range for potential retests. A break above 0.1319 could indicate a consolidation phase, whereas a break below 0.1264 could extend the current bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the significance of resistance levels in the INITUSDT pair, a backtest can be designed around the concept of “price closing above the 20-day rolling maximum.” This is a common definition of a breakout and is often used to identify key resistance-level impacts in trending markets. Using the 20-day rolling high as a dynamic resistance threshold, the backtest would analyze how price reacts when it closes above this level over the period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-08.

The strategy would involve identifying breakout events and assessing their impact over the subsequent 5–10 trading days, measuring both returns and volatility. This test can help quantify whether breaking through established resistance levels leads to sustained price advances or false breakouts, providing traders with valuable insight into the psychological and behavioral factors influencing this market pair.