Market Overview for Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) on 2025-10-31

• INITUSDT opened at 0.1384 and traded between 0.1343 and 0.1414, closing near 0.1411.
• Price broke above key resistance around 0.1395, with bullish momentum in later hours.
• Volume surged in the final 6 hours, with turnover exceeding 310,000 tokens.
• RSI climbed into overbought territory, suggesting potential near-term profit-taking.
• Volatility expanded as price approached upper Bollinger Bands in the final candle.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at 0.1384 on October 30 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.1411 at 12:00 ET on October 31. The 24-hour period saw price action between 0.1343 and 0.1414. Total volume reached 10.68 million, with a notional turnover of 1,485,270 USD.

The structure of the 15-minute chart reveals a series of key resistance and support levels. Price broke through a prior resistance at 0.1395 and 0.1405, with a potential short-term ceiling forming around 0.1421. A bullish engulfing pattern is evident at the 0.138–0.139 level, reinforcing the upward bias. A doji appears near 0.1343, signaling indecision and a potential support base.

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The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bullish territory around 0.1385, suggesting a strong short-term upward bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 EMA cluster is below current price, indicating that the broader trend may be turning bullish. MACD remains positive and shows growing momentum, with a potential overbought signal emerging. RSI crossed above 70, which could indicate near-term profit-taking or a pullback.

Volatility expanded significantly in the final 6 hours of the day, with Bollinger Bands widening and price touching the upper band in the 14:00–16:00 ET window. Notable volume spikes occurred at 0.1343–0.1345 and 0.1405–0.1413, coinciding with key price levels. Turnover confirmed price strength at these points, with no major divergences observed.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 0.1343–0.1414 swing highlight a 61.8% retracement at 0.1391 and a 78.6% level at 0.1405. These areas have been strong psychological levels today, with price consolidating near 0.1405–0.1413 in the final hours. On the daily chart, a larger swing from 0.1324 to 0.1412 suggests potential for a retest of the 0.1395–0.1385 zone in the next 24 hours.

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Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical setup observed today, a backtest could be designed around a price trigger rule: entering a long position when price breaks below 0.1355 on the daily close, with an initial target at the next Fibonacci retracement level and a stop-loss below the most recent swing low. This setup would test whether key support levels hold or fail under similar conditions over the past three years (2022–2025). Using the ticker INITUSDT, the strategy could be tested to evaluate its profitability, frequency of signals, and risk-reward ratio, offering insights into whether similar setups could provide consistent signals.

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