Market Overview for Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) – 2025-10-23

• Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) fell 2.4% over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.1621 after a sharp dip to 0.1568.
• Volume surged to 10.6 million, but turnover declined, hinting at possible profit-taking or weak follow-through.
• A long bearish shadow and bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 21:15–21:30 ET window, signaling a likely continuation of downside.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence, with RSI dipping near 30, suggesting a potential short-term oversold rebound.
• Volatility expanded in the first half of the session, with price oscillating between 0.162 and 0.1568 before stabilizing toward the session close.

Price Action and Key Levels

Initia/Tether opened at 0.1701 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-22 and closed at 0.1621 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-23, hitting a low of 0.1568. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 10.6 million, with notional turnover declining despite the price drop, hinting at weak conviction in the move lower. Key support appears to be forming near 0.1568, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed around the 21:15–21:30 ET time frame. Resistance levels are visible near 0.1625–0.1630 and 0.165–0.166, which are likely to be tested in the coming days.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, price has remained below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish tone. The 50-period MA at ~0.1645 is acting as a key dynamic resistance. Bollinger Bands are currently wide, reflecting high volatility. Price has spent most of the session near the lower band, suggesting that the market is in a consolidating bearish phase.

Momentum and Oscillators

MACD crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI has dipped close to 30, hinting at a potential short-term rebound, but this is unlikely to reverse the broader downtrend without a strong break above 0.164. A bullish crossover on RSI is possible in the next 4–6 hours if price stabilizes above 0.1608. Divergences between price and volume suggest that buyers may be losing control, increasing the risk of a test of the 0.156 level.

Volume and Fibonacci Implications

Volume spiked during the 21:15–21:30 ET window as price broke below 0.1621, reinforcing the bearish bias. Notional turnover, however, did not match this volume increase, suggesting that much of the selling may have been stop-loss triggered or profit-taking rather than aggressive accumulation. On the Fibonacci scale, the 0.1568 level aligns with the 61.8% retracement level of the recent 0.1568–0.1671 range, making it a critical area to watch. A close above 0.164 could trigger a retest of the 0.166–0.1675 range on a 38.2% rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent RSI divergence and bearish MACD, a backtest of a strategy using the RSI crossover methodology may be particularly relevant. The proposed RSI-based strategy would look to enter long positions when RSI crosses above 70 and short when it falls below 30, with a 2% stop-loss and profit target. However, due to the data vendor's inability to retrieve RSI data for INITUSDT from 2022-01-01 to today, the backtest cannot be executed in its current form. To proceed, you must confirm the correct ticker (e.g., “INJUSDT” or “INTUSDT”) and specify the stop-loss level (e.g., 1%, 2%, or 3%). Once confirmed, I can retrieve the RSI series, generate signals, and run the backtest with interactive visualizations for further insight.