Market Overview for Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) on 2025-10-14

• Price surged to $0.2109 but faced resistance, retreating to $0.1917.
• Volatility expanded early, followed by a sharp contraction into range-bound consolidation.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions during the peak and oversold during the dip.
• Bollinger Bands contracted during the consolidation phase, indicating potential for a breakout.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near the low, suggesting a possible reversal.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at $0.2016 on October 13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1917 on October 14 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.2109 and a low of $0.1837. Total volume reached 15,746,782.6, while notional turnover amounted to $2,882,226. The pair displayed a volatile 24-hour range with strong bearish pressure in the latter half.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a distinct bearish divergence from the high of $0.2109 to the low of $0.1837, with a key support level forming around $0.1917 and $0.1886. A potential bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the early morning, indicating a possible short-term reversal after a sharp selloff. However, a strong resistance cluster appears near $0.205–$0.208, where multiple candle closes and highs cluster over the past 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price spent most of the day below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages were not clearly provided, but based on the recent action, the 200-period line likely sits below the 50-period, signaling a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI fluctuated between overbought and oversold territory, peaking near 75 during the rally and falling below 30 during the selloff. The MACD remained below the signal line for most of the period, indicating bearish momentum. A potential reversal could be confirmed if the MACD crosses back above zero during a recovery phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply following the peak at $0.2109, with price swinging between the upper and lower bands. A contraction occurred around $0.1917, suggesting a possible breakout or reversal could be imminent. Price is currently positioned near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and a potential bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 1.6 million at $0.2109 and $0.1901 during key price pivots, confirming the significance of these levels. Notional turnover surged alongside the price action, particularly in the selloff from $0.2098 to $0.1837. The divergence between price and volume during the final leg down suggests weakening bearish momentum, hinting at a potential bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the major swing high at $0.2109 to the low at $0.1837 suggest 61.8% retrace at ~$0.1975 and 38.2% at ~$0.2002. The price is currently forming near the 61.8% level, which could either act as support or trigger a deeper decline, depending on volume and momentum confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based on identifying Bullish-Engulfing patterns could offer insight into potential entry points and risk-reward profiles for INITUSDT. The data service returned an error retrieving these signals, likely due to the symbol not being recognized in the database. To proceed, the correct symbol—such as the exact exchange-listed code—should be confirmed. Alternatively, manually provided Bullish-Engulfing pattern dates would allow for a 3-day holding-period back-test from 2022-01-01 to today. Once the correct input is established, a signal file can be generated to evaluate performance and risk characteristics.