Market Overview: Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) on 2025-10-03

• Price rose from 0.3166 to 0.3425 in 24h, closing near the high with a bullish bias.
• Volume surged significantly during the upward wave on 2025-10-02 19:30 ET, confirming strength.
• RSI reached mid-50s, suggesting neutral momentum but potential to push higher.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the rally, indicating increased volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.3334–0.3347 before the final rally, offering early buy signal.

Initia/Tether (INITUSDT) opened at 0.3166 on 2025-10-02 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3425 one day later, reaching a high of 0.3428 and a low of 0.3166. The total volume over the 24-hour window was 14,536,178.4 units, with a notional turnover of $4.7M. The price action demonstrated a strong upward bias driven by several large-volume candles.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period showed a distinct bullish structure, with a key support level forming near 0.3334 and a strong resistance at 0.3384–0.3428. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed at 0.3334–0.3347, signaling a reversal in bearish momentum. Later, a series of strong bullish candles confirmed the breakout. A small doji at 0.3344–0.3345 hinted at brief indecision before the final push.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, suggesting continued strength. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) are not visible in the dataset but likely confirm a positive trend, especially given the sharp move from 0.3166 to 0.3425.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a positive crossover during the rally from 0.3331 to 0.3389, with a strong histogram indicating momentum. RSI oscillated between 50 and 60, suggesting balanced but not overbought conditions. This suggests the rally may continue unless RSI crosses 65–70.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the upward move, particularly in the 19:30–20:30 ET window, pushing the price near the upper band. This expansion is often a precursor to a continuation or consolidation phase, depending on volume and order flow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 19:30–20:30 ET rally and again at 04:00–05:00 ET, confirming price strength. Notional turnover also rose in line with price, showing no signs of divergence. The 0.3418–0.3425 close was supported by high-volume trading, increasing the likelihood of a sustainable move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.3166 to 0.3425 swing include 0.3313 (38.2%), 0.3379 (61.8%), and 0.3425 (100%). The 61.8% level was tested and then exceeded, suggesting further upside potential. A pullback to the 61.8% level could offer a low-risk re-entry point.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on identifying the bullish engulfing pattern near 0.3334–0.3347, followed by a stop-loss just below 0.3320 and a target aligned with the 0.3361–0.3384 Fibonacci levels. Given the volume confirmation during the breakout and the subsequent momentum, this pattern could serve as a reliable entry trigger in a larger backtesting framework. If tested over multiple timeframes and price cycles, this approach might offer a favorable risk-reward profile, especially when combined with RSI divergence and Bollinger Band expansion.