Market Overview: Immutable/Bitcoin (IMXBTC) — October 9, 2025

• Immutable/Bitcoin (IMXBTC) closed lower amid moderate volume, with a bearish trend forming after a failed bullish attempt.

• Price action showed bearish momentum with a 24-hour range of 5.89e-06 to 5.54e-06 and a close near support levels.

• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish pressure, with RSI trending downward and MACD showing bearish divergence.

• Bollinger Bands indicated a period of expansion in volatility, with price closing near the lower band.

• Volume spiked during the 17:30–19:00 ET window, but price failed to sustain gains, suggesting weak conviction in buying pressure.

Immutable/Bitcoin (IMXBTC) opened at 5.82e-06 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.6e-06 on October 9. The pair hit a high of 5.89e-06 and a low of 5.54e-06 during the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 30,242.89 IMX, while notional turnover was approximately 173.58 BTC, reflecting active but bearish trading conditions.

Structure and formations show a clear bearish bias, with price breaking below key support at 5.7e-06 and forming bearish patterns like the dark cloud cover and bearish engulfing near the 5.89e-06 swing high. A doji formed at 5.88e-06, signaling indecision and a likely trend reversal. The price action may continue to test the 5.54e-06 low, with potential for a short-term bounce if buyers emerge near this level.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show that price has moved below the 20- and 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish tilt. On the daily chart, price remains below the 50, 100, and 200-day MA, suggesting a longer-term downtrend. The 20-period MA is currently at 5.76e-06, acting as dynamic resistance in the short term.

MACD has shown bearish divergence, with the histogram and signal line moving lower, indicating weakening bullish momentum. RSI has fallen into oversold territory (around 28), but this may not be enough to trigger a rebound without confirmation. Bollinger Bands are wide, reflecting heightened volatility, and price closed near the lower band, a possible signal for oversold conditions.

Volume surged during the 17:30–19:00 ET window but failed to support a meaningful rally, indicating weak buyer participation. Similarly, the 5.89e-06 high was accompanied by strong volume, but price quickly reversed. This divergence between price and volume may suggest a short-term top has been reached. Notional turnover also spiked during the 20:30–21:00 ET window, but this was accompanied by a decline in price.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent 5.89e-06–5.54e-06 swing show 5.67e-06 as a 23.6% retracement level and 5.6e-06 as a 38.2% retracement level. Price has found resistance at both levels, with a potential test of the 5.72e-06 (50% retracement) if buyers enter the market. On the daily chart, retracements from the 5.95e-06–5.54e-06 range highlight 5.75e-06 as a key short-term resistance level.

The pair may continue to consolidate near the 5.6e-06 level before either breaking lower or testing the 5.67e-06 support. Traders should remain cautious of potential bearish continuation, especially if volume rises without a reversal. However, a rebound from the lower Bollinger Band and RSI in oversold territory could signal a short-term buying opportunity.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves entering short positions upon confirmation of bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing, dark cloud cover) and divergence in the MACD. Stops are placed above the recent high of the formation, while targets align with Fibonacci retracement levels. This strategy aligns with the current technical environment, where bearish patterns and momentum indicators are in sync. Testing this strategy on historical IMXBTC 15-minute data would help determine its viability in the current market structure and risk-reward profile.