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Summary
• Price opened at $4.22e-06 and closed at $4.16e-06, down from the 24-hour high of $4.25e-06.
• A bearish breakdown below key support levels is confirmed, with volume surging at key price declines.
• RSI is in oversold territory, while MACD is bearish, suggesting a potential short-term rebound may be limited.
Immutable/Bitcoin (IMXBTC) opened at $4.22e-06 at 12:00 ET−1, reaching a high of $4.25e-06 and a low of $4.03e-06 before closing at $4.16e-06 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 41,448.17, with a notional turnover of $174,000.
The price action over the last 24 hours shows a bearish breakdown from a prior consolidation range. Key support levels were tested and broken, notably at $4.20e-06 and $4.15e-06, with bearish confirmation from candlestick patterns such as the dark cloud cover and bearish engulfing. A doji formed near $4.06e-06, indicating indecision and potential exhaustion in the short-term selloff.
Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price below both the 20 and 50 SMA, reinforcing the bearish trend. Daily MA indicators (50, 100, 200) are
yet aligned in a clear bearish formation, but the 50 SMA is starting to slope downward, which may signal further downside.MACD is in negative territory, with the histogram contracting, suggesting waning bearish momentum. RSI is in oversold territory, hinting that a short-term bounce may be due, though bearish control remains strong. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, indicating rising volatility and increased trading intensity around key price levels.
Volume spiked during the early to mid-portion of the 24-hour period, particularly during the breakdown below $4.20e-06. Notional turnover spiked alongside volume, confirming bearish sentiment. However, in the latter half, volume declined, suggesting a potential pause in selling pressure.
Fibonacci retracements drawn from the recent high to the low show the price has reached the 61.8% retracement level near $4.15e-06. A failure to break below this level could trigger a short-term rebound toward $4.18e-06–$4.20e-06.
Tomorrow may see a short-term bounce driven by oversold RSI and a lack of follow-through selling, but bearish sentiment remains intact. A close below $4.15e-06 would open the next key support at $4.07e-06, potentially extending the bearish trend further.

The Backtest Hypothesis section is based on a proposed strategy that relies on MACD signals to identify potential trend reversals, particularly the Death Cross. However, due to the absence of valid MACD data for IMXBTC, it is not currently possible to perform a robust backtest.
To proceed, the correct ticker format for IMXBTC must be specified (e.g., BINANCE:IMXBTC or COINBASE:IMX-BTC) or an alternative trading pair like IMXUSDT should be considered if IMXBTC is not broadly available. Once a valid ticker is provided, the MACD series can be retrieved and a full backtest of the Death-Cross strategy can be executed from 2022-01-01 to present.
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