Market Overview for Immutable/Bitcoin (IMXBTC)

• Price opened at $5.53e-6 and declined to $3.13e-6 before rebounding to close near $4.6e-6.
• Volatility surged during the 21:00–22:00 ET window, with a massive volume spike.
• RSI and MACD indicated bearish momentum early, but divergence later suggested potential reversal.
• Key resistance emerged around $4.6e-6, with support holding near $3.13e-6.

The IMXBTC pair opened at $5.53e-6 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.6e-6 by the same time on 2025-10-11. The pair reached a high of $5.55e-6 and a low of $2.09e-6 within the 24-hour window. The total volume traded was 882,250.33 units, while the notional turnover was approximately $4,585.51. The price action revealed a volatile bearish phase followed by a gradual bullish consolidation.

The structure of the candlestick pattern showed a strong bearish bias during the first half of the window, marked by a large bearish engulfing pattern around 21:30–22:00 ET. This was followed by a consolidation phase, with a series of smaller bullish and bearish candles indicating indecision in the market. A key support level emerged at $3.13e-6, which held twice during the period. Resistance is now forming at $4.6e-6, where price has stalled multiple times, and further tests of this level may indicate continuation or reversal.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart (20/50) showed a bearish crossover at the start of the 24-hour window, reinforcing the bearish momentum. By the latter half, the price began to close above the 50-period SMA, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day SMAs were not available for full assessment but the short-term bias appears to have weakened, with signs of a potential bullish reversal taking shape.

The MACD showed a bearish crossover during the first hour of the period, confirming the downward momentum. However, by the third quarter of the 24-hour window, the histogram began to narrow and showed a bullish divergence with the price action, suggesting a possible near-term bottom. The RSI moved into oversold territory during the low of $2.09e-6, and it has since bounced back above 45, indicating a gradual return of buyer interest. Price appears to be setting up for a potential consolidation or reversal pattern.

Bollinger Bands reflected high volatility during the initial 21:00–22:00 ET window, with price moving below the lower band, a sign of oversold conditions. Volatility then contracted as the price consolidated near $4.6e-6, with the bands narrowing. The price has since tested the upper band multiple times, suggesting a potential breakout or continuation. A close above $4.6e-6 could signal bullish strength, but a retest is likely.

Volume spiked dramatically during the 21:00–22:00 ET window, coinciding with the price drop to $3.13e-6. This was the largest volume spike of the period and occurred amid a significant price move, suggesting strong selling pressure. However, subsequent volume has decreased, indicating waning bearish momentum. Turnover followed a similar pattern, with a sharp increase during the initial sell-off, but declining as the price stabilized.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent swing low of $3.13e-6 and high of $5.55e-6 identified key levels. The 38.2% retracement level at $4.46e-6 and the 61.8% at $4.15e-6 have both been tested. The current price near $4.6e-6 is close to the 38.2% level and may test this area again for confirmation of a bullish bounce. A failure to hold above this level could see a retest of the 61.8% level.

The next 24 hours could see IMXBTC either consolidating near the $4.6e-6 resistance or testing it for a potential breakout. Traders should monitor the 20/50 EMA crossover, RSI divergence, and volume spikes for confirmation of either outcome. A further decline below $4.46e-6 would increase bearish risks, while a sustained move above $4.6e-6 may indicate a short-term reversal.

The market appears to be in a consolidation phase with bearish momentum slowing. A cautious bullish bias is emerging, particularly if the current resistance level at $4.6e-6 holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this pair could involve a reversal-based approach using the 20/50 EMA crossover and RSI divergence as entry signals. A long position could be triggered when the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA and the RSI shows a bullish divergence after a strong bearish phase. A stop loss could be placed slightly below the most recent swing low, while a take profit could be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Given the current setup, this strategy may have been triggered around 04:30–06:00 ET on 2025-10-11, aligning with the RSI divergence and EMA shift.