Market Overview for Immutable/Bitcoin (IMXBTC) on 2025-10-03

• The 24-hour candle for IMXBTC ended mixed, closing near the opening price after reaching a high of 6.16e-06 with strong late-session volatility.
• A sharp late-day rally pushed price to 6.16e-06 before a pullback, suggesting short-term bullish momentum but lingering indecision.
• Volume surged in the final hours, with a large candle forming near 15:45 ET, confirming a breakout attempt from key resistance.
• The RSI remained in overbought territory for much of the session, suggesting potential for a near-term correction.
• Bollinger Bands widened as the price tested the upper band, indicating heightened volatility and potential for consolidation.

Immutable/Bitcoin (IMXBTC) opened at 5.83e-06 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 6.16e-06 during the session. The pair closed at 6.14e-06 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, with a total trading volume of 88,824.95 contracts and a notional turnover of approximately $534.00. Price activity was largely contained between 5.83e-06 and 6.16e-06, with a late-day breakout attempt failing just below the peak.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart revealed a strong bearish reversal pattern at the 6.04e-06–6.16e-06 level, followed by a large bullish candle on the last candle before 16:00 ET that pushed price to its highest intra-day level. A notable doji formed near the 6.03e-06 level during the early morning, indicating indecision. Key support levels to watch include 5.93e-06 and 5.84e-06, while resistance appears to be strengthening around 6.03e-06 and 6.16e-06. The price may find support or resistance at these levels in the near term.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover as the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA during the afternoon. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting a mixed but potentially bullish setup. Momentum remains strong in the shorter term, while the longer-term trend is less defined.

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the mid-session, confirming bullish momentum. RSI peaked in overbought territory above 75, signaling potential for a near-term pullback or consolidation phase. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the late hours, with price touching the upper band before a quick reversal. This suggests that volatility may remain high and price could continue to oscillate between key support and resistance levels in the coming hours.

The notional turnover spiked in the final hour of the session, with the 15:45 ET candle showing a large volume of 17,165.88 contracts. This coincided with a breakout attempt to 6.16e-06, confirming strength at the level. However, the subsequent pullback suggests the move might not be sustainable without stronger follow-through volume. The divergence between price and volume in the late afternoon may indicate caution among traders, especially as the RSI remains in overbought territory.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the 15-minute swing from 5.93e-06 to 6.16e-06 indicate that the 61.8% level is around 6.04e-06, which the pair tested and bounced off. For the daily move, 38.2% and 61.8% retracements align with key psychological levels around 5.99e-06 and 6.03e-06, which could act as pivot points for the next 24 hours. These levels may offer strategic opportunities for position management or entry.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on leveraging short-term momentum and Fibonacci retracement levels to identify high-probability entry and exit points. Specifically, the strategy looks to enter long positions when the price breaks above a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA. A stop-loss is placed just below the most recent swing low, and the target is set at the next higher retracement level.

Applying this to the 24-hour period, a trade would have been triggered on the 15:45 ET candle as the price surged past the 61.8% retracement level and the 20/50 MA crossed bullish. A stop-loss would have been placed below 6.03e-06, and the target at 6.08e-06 or the next retracement level. This approach would have captured a portion of the late-day move, albeit with a tight risk-reward profile. The strategy may be more effective in higher volatility environments like the one observed, but caution is advised due to the RSI’s overbought condition.