Market Overview for Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT): Strong 24-Hour Rally Amid Elevated Volatility

• Price surged over 15-minute intervals, reaching a 24-hour high of $13.74 before consolidating.
• Strong bullish momentum observed with RSI near overbought and positive divergence in volume.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the afternoon ET, signaling increased volatility.
• ILVUSDT closed at $13.59, up from $12.97 at the prior 24-hour open.

Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) opened at $12.97 on 2025-09-22 12:00 ET and closed at $13.59 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $13.74 and a low of $12.84. The total 24-hour trading volume was approximately 159,532.91, with a notional turnover of roughly $2.14 million.

Structure & Formations

Price displayed a strong bullish bias over the 24-hour period, forming key support levels around $12.85–$12.92 and resistance near $13.40–$13.74. A significant breakout occurred above the $13.40 level following a consolidation phase. Notable candlestick patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern at $13.00–$13.05 and a morning star at $12.93–$12.96, both indicating strong buyer control and potential trend continuation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed above key price levels during the rally, suggesting strong short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are diverging, with the 50-period above the 200-period, reinforcing a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line in the early afternoon ET, confirming a shift in momentum to the long side. The RSI reached an overbought level of 74 by the late afternoon, indicating potential exhaustion. However, this was supported by increasing volume, suggesting a higher probability of a continued upward move rather than a sharp correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the afternoon and early evening ET, with the upper Bollinger Band reaching $13.74 and the lower band hitting $13.11. Price remained above the 20-period moving average and closed near the upper band, indicating strong buying pressure and potential for a continuation of the current trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged significantly during the price breakout in the afternoon, with the highest 15-minute volume reaching 15,953.291 at 12:45 ET. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, reaching $213,542. The volume and price action aligned positively, suggesting a high probability of a sustained move higher.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings identified key Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% (~$13.36) and 61.8% (~$13.59), with the price closing near the 61.8% level. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement of the recent upward move is at $13.36 and the 61.8% level at $13.65, both aligning with key resistance areas and suggesting further bullish potential.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the identified bullish structure, moving averages, and overbought RSI without bearish divergence, a backtest strategy could focus on long entries at key Fibonacci levels with tight stop losses just below recent swing lows. Entries near 61.8% retracements with targets at the next Fibonacci level or above the upper Bollinger Band could be tested. The alignment of volume surges with price breaks confirms strong conviction in these setups, making them high-probability for further testing in a live or paper-trading environment.