Market Overview for Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) - 24-Hour Summary

• Price rose to a high of $14.99 before retracting to a low of $13.77, closing at $14.07 on 2025-10-09.
• High volatility seen in early trading, with a strong bearish reversal in the mid-session.
• Total volume traded was ~50,470 ILV, with $687,841 notional turnover in the 24-hour period.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early, while MACD showed bearish divergence later in the session.
• Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the sharp selloff, reflecting increased market uncertainty.

Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) opened at $14.45 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $14.99, and fell to a low of $13.77 before closing at $14.07 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET. Over the past 24 hours, the pair traded a volume of approximately 50,470 ILV, with a total notional value of $687,841.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick chart reveals a strong bullish push early in the session, forming a large bullish candle around 17:45 ET. This was followed by a sharp bearish correction, with several bearish engulfing patterns visible between 01:30 ET and 04:00 ET. A notable doji formed at around $14.36, suggesting indecision among traders. The price later found a temporary support at $13.84, forming a small base before another pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over in the morning session, signaling a potential bullish momentum that was quickly reversed. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory in the mid-session and remained bearish until the close. The RSI peaked above 70 early in the day, indicating overbought conditions, before dropping into oversold territory by late morning. This suggests a potential exhaustion of buyers, which was followed by a significant price drop.

Bollinger Bands

Price moved outside the upper Bollinger Band early in the session, indicating heightened volatility. As the price dropped, it moved well below the lower band, reaching levels not seen in the past few days. The sharp contraction and expansion of the bands reflect a volatile and uncertain market environment.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume peaked at 7,453.758 ILV during the sharp selloff at 01:30 ET, with the largest notional turnover occurring at that time. While volume confirmed the bearish move, it was less pronounced during the initial bullish push, suggesting a weaker buy-side conviction. A divergence between volume and price was observed during the final hours of the session, indicating potential indecision.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute chart shows that the 61.8% level was hit at $14.59 before the sharp selloff. The price then retested the 38.2% level at $14.16, which acted as a temporary support. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level is at $14.23 and appears to be a potential area of interest for short-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy appears to focus on identifying high-volume divergence between price and momentum indicators—particularly RSI and MACD—during sharp moves. Based on the ILVUSDT action, the bearish divergence seen in the MACD and the overbought RSI suggesting a potential exhaustion of buyers could serve as an entry trigger for short positions. A trailing stop-loss near the 38.2% Fibonacci level and a target near the 61.8% level of the prior bullish move could be applied. A backtest of this strategy on historical ILVUSDT data would be valuable to assess its viability across varying market conditions.