Market Overview: Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) on 2025-10-10

• Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) surged to a high of $16.16 amid strong volume expansion after a bullish breakout above $15.80.
• A key 15-minute bearish divergence formed on RSI around $15.80, suggesting possible near-term profit-taking.
• Volatility expanded significantly as the pair moved from $14.25 to $16.16, with Bollinger Bands widening post $15.00.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at $15.00–15.20, followed by a continuation of higher highs and increasing turnover.
• Notional turnover spiked over $200,000 during the 06:15–09:45 ET window, aligning with the highest price move.

Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) opened at $14.25 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at $14.61 at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair surged to $16.16 (high) and dropped to $14.25 (low), with total volume of 224,109.57 ILV and a notional turnover of approximately $3,255,996.51 over 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bullish reversal pattern from $15.00, with a bullish engulfing candle and a strong continuation of higher closes. Key support levels formed around $14.85 and $14.59, both showing price rejection and consolidation. A bearish doji formed at $15.80, signaling caution and potential pullback. Resistance emerged at $16.16, with a failed attempt to push higher followed by a pullback to $15.71. A major bullish trendline was established from $14.25 to $16.00, with price showing resilience around key Fibonacci retracements at 61.8% of the $14.25–$16.16 range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were bullish, with price consistently above both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 100-period MA, signaling a short-term positive trend. The 200-period MA remained lower, suggesting medium-term bullish momentum. Price remained above the 20 and 50-period lines throughout most of the 24-hour period, reinforcing the strength of the move.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed strong bullish momentum during the initial breakout from $15.00–15.20, with the histogram expanding as the move continued. However, a bearish divergence appeared in RSI around $15.80, indicating overbought conditions and potential profit-taking. RSI peaked at 73 during the $16.16 high before retreating, signaling caution. The MACD line continued to trend upward post $15.80, though at a slower pace, indicating a possible consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply during the breakout from $15.00 to $16.16, with Bollinger Bands expanding significantly. Price moved outside the upper band at $16.16, indicating a strong move toward overbought territory. As the pair pulled back to $15.71–15.81, it tested the mid-band, suggesting a potential range-bound phase ahead. The narrowing of the bands prior to the breakout at $15.00 indicated a period of low volatility and impending directional movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout from $15.00 to $16.16, peaking at over $200,000 notional turnover during the 06:15–09:45 ET window. Price and turnover moved in sync during this phase, validating the strength of the bullish trend. However, post $15.80, volume declined while price continued to edge higher, indicating weaker conviction. A divergence between price and turnover occurred between $15.80 and $15.71, suggesting a potential bearish reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key Fibonacci levels were at 38.2% ($15.31) and 61.8% ($15.75) of the swing from $14.25 to $16.16. Price tested the 61.8% level at $15.75 before retreating, suggesting a temporary resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a prior bearish swing aligned with the current consolidation phase, indicating a possible continuation of the bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed Fibonacci levels and the strong volume confirmation around the $15.00–15.20 breakout, a potential backtest hypothesis could involve a trend-following long strategy with a 15-minute timeframe. The strategy would enter long on a breakout above the 20-period EMA and exit on a close below the 50-period EMA or after reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Stop-loss would be placed just below a key support at $14.85, with a target near the 76.4% retracement at $15.90. This setup aligns with the observed bullish momentum, volume validation, and the formation of key price patterns during the breakout phase.