Market Overview for Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• ILVUSDT opened at $15.58 and closed at $14.74, with a 24-hour high of $15.78 and low of $14.69
• Price experienced a strong bearish reversal around 17:15 ET, with a candle closing at $15.40
• Volatility expanded during the session with increased volume and turnover during the price drop
• RSI showed overbought conditions in early hours, followed by a bearish divergence later in the day
• ILVUSDT is trading below both 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish momentum

The 24-hour session for ILVUSDT began at $15.58 and ended at $14.74, with a peak of $15.78 and a trough of $14.69. The total traded volume over the past 24 hours was 97,498.69 ILV, with a notional turnover of $1,492,112.16 USD. Price experienced a strong bearish trend after midday, especially after 17:15 ET, when volume spiked significantly.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with the 20-period line at $15.27 and the 50-period at $15.35 as of the latest candle. Price has been below both lines for the majority of the session, indicating continued bearish momentum. The MACD has turned negative, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line, reinforcing bearish bias. RSI has dropped to 34.7, suggesting moderate oversold conditions, though not extreme. Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly during the drop-off, showing increased volatility, and price is now near the lower band.

Candlestick patterns during the bearish leg include a strong dark cloud cover and a hanging man at key resistance levels. A large bearish engulfing pattern at the 17:15 ET candle confirmed the shift in sentiment. Volume during the bearish move was significantly higher than during bullish phases, with the largest 15-minute volume candle reaching 12,704.90 ILV at 17:15 ET. Notional turnover also spiked during this period. Price appears to be consolidating near the 14.75 level, where a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the recent bullish swing is located. This level could serve as a near-term floor or trigger further selling.

Bollinger Bands show the price is currently near the lower band, indicating a period of high volatility and bearish bias. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory but remains within a range that could allow for a short-term bounce. However, the divergence in volume and price during the bearish phase suggests further downside is likely in the short term. Traders should watch for a retest of the 14.75 level for confirmation of a potential bounce or breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy for ILVUSDT could involve entering a short position when price breaks below the 20-period moving average with confirmation from a bearish engulfing pattern and a volume spike. A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance level, which is currently at the 14.95–14.99 range. The target for the short would be the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at $14.75, with an exit at that level if the price fails to rebound. This strategy would aim to capitalize on the current bearish momentum and high volatility while limiting exposure to unexpected rebounds or spikes in liquidity.