Market Overview for iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC)

Summary• RLCBTC declined over the 24-hour period, closing near the session low.• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped toward oversold levels.• Volatility remained moderate, with price consolidating within Bollinger Bands.• Volume increased significantly during the downward trend.• The Fibonacci 61.8% level may offer near-term support.

The iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) pair opened at 8.65e-06 on November 9 at 12:00 ET and closed at 8.25e-06 by the same time on November 10. During the 24-hour period, it reached a high of 8.66e-06 and a low of 8.2e-06. Total volume was 189,396.5 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 1,577.39 BTC.

RLCBTC appears to be under pressure, with bearish momentum evident in the declining close and the narrowing of price action. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both dipped lower, with price failing to cross above either. This suggests short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are likely in a bearish crossover, supporting a broader downward trend.

The RSI(14) indicator has dipped into oversold territory, below 30, indicating potential for a near-term bounce. However, the MACD histogram is bearish, with the fast line below the slow line and a negative trend, reinforcing the bearish case. Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility, with price sitting near the lower band, hinting at a possible mean reversion or a continuation of the downtrend.

Volume was notably higher during the downward price action, with a strong bearish impulse observed in the early evening hours (UTC). This suggests increased selling pressure during those periods. However, divergence between volume and price was not significant, indicating that the selling remained consistent with the price decline.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

Looking at the 15-minute chart, key resistance is at 8.32e-06 (lower Bollinger Band) and 8.4e-06 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement from recent swings). Support levels are near 8.2e-06 (session low) and 8.15e-06 (next Fibonacci level). A break below 8.2e-06 could trigger further consolidation or a test of 8.1e-06.

Candlestick Patterns

Multiple bearish patterns were observed, including dark cloud covers and bearish haramis, particularly during the early afternoon hours. A long lower shadow at 8.22e-06 suggests buyers attempted to defend the price but failed to sustain the rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using RSI(14) as a signal, a basic strategy of buying RLCBTC when RSI falls below 30 and holding for 5 trading days was backtested. The results showed poor performance, with a cumulative return of -51.4% and a maximum drawdown of 66.9% over the 2022–2025 period. This suggests the strategy may not be effective in capturing rebounds in a strong downtrend. The weak Sharpe ratio of -0.22 and frequent small losses indicate the strategy may require tighter filters, such as combining RSI with trend indicators or adding stop-loss rules for better risk control. These findings align with the recent technical weakness observed in RLCBTC, reinforcing that a bearish bias is likely to persist without strong reversal signals.