Market Overview for iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC): 24-Hour Technical Update

• Price action showed a moderate bearish drift over 24 hours, closing near the session low.
• Volatility expanded during midday ET, with volume surging near key support levels.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early ET session, reinforcing downward bias.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, hinting at a potential breakout in either direction.

At 12:00 ET on September 26, 2025, the iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) pair opened at 9.27e-06, reached a high of 9.29e-06, and a low of 8.85e-06, before closing at 9.14e-06. The total volume over the 24-hour window was 62,345.2, with notional turnover amounting to 567.09. The session saw a significant bearish move, particularly from midday to early evening ET, followed by a moderate rally overnight.

Structure & Formations

The price of RLCBTC formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the early afternoon ET session, confirming a shift in sentiment. A notable doji appeared near 8.93e-06, signaling indecision as the price approached this support. The session low of 8.85e-06 may act as a critical support level, while the midday high of 9.29e-06 could serve as a psychological resistance. A key bearish breakdown occurred between 18:00 and 19:00 ET, marking the beginning of the extended decline.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both remained above the price for the majority of the session, confirming the bearish momentum. The price closed below both MAs at the end of the session, reinforcing the downtrend. On a daily basis, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs were aligned in a bearish configuration, with the 50-period MA dipping below the 100-period MA, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the early ET sell-off, confirming the bearish momentum. The histogram showed a rapid expansion in the bearish territory, aligning with the large volume moves. The RSI closed in the oversold range at 29, suggesting the possibility of a short-term rebound. However, the slow RSI remains in the oversold zone, indicating the market may consolidate before a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the afternoon ET session, with the price breaking below the lower band, signaling a possible exhaustion of bearish momentum. The bands had been in a contractionary phase overnight, suggesting a potential breakout scenario. At the close, the price was comfortably within the bands, showing no immediate signs of a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume spike occurred between 18:00 and 19:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp decline from 9.09e-06 to 9.11e-06. The large volume and notional turnover confirmed the bearish move, whereas the overnight rally was supported by moderate volume, indicating a potential accumulation phase. A divergence was observed between price and volume during the late ET session, suggesting market uncertainty.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 9.29e-06 high to the 8.85e-06 low include 61.8% at 9.03e-06 and 38.2% at 9.18e-06. The 38.2% level was briefly tested during the overnight rally but failed to hold. The 61.8% level may serve as a strong support area in the near term, while a retest of the 9.29e-06 high would require a significant shift in sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting RLCBTC upon a breakout below the 38.2% Fibonacci level (9.18e-06), with a stop-loss placed above the 50-period moving average and a target at the 61.8% retracement level (9.03e-06). This approach aligns with the bearish momentum observed in the MACD and volume profile. The overnight rally to 9.15e-06 presents a critical juncture—if the price fails to hold above 9.11e-06, the strategy could be triggered in the next session.