Market Overview for iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC): 24-Hour Breakdown and Momentum Shift

• Price fell from 9.23e-06 to 8.64e-06, with a 6.39% decline in the last 24 hours.
• RSI entered oversold territory, and MACD turned negative, signaling bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded during the decline, with price breaking below a key 15-min support level of 8.95e-06.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased uncertainty in price direction.
• Notional turnover surged during the afternoon and evening ET, coinciding with the breakdown.

iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) opened at 9.23e-06 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET and fell to 8.64e-06 by the same time the following day. The pair hit an intraday high of 9.56e-06 and a low of 8.42e-06, with total volume amounting to 242,457.3 and total turnover of 2.08 BTC over the 24-hour window. A bearish reversal appears to have taken hold, supported by weakening momentum and expanding volatility.

The price action shows a breakdown from a recent 15-minute resistance cluster around 8.95e-06, with a sharp pullback during the late evening and early morning hours ET. A key support level at 8.82e-06 was briefly tested, but buying interest failed to emerge, allowing further downward pressure. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 01:45–02:00 ET timeframe, confirming the shift in sentiment. The 20-period EMA crossed below the 50-period EMA during the breakdown, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Momentum indicators suggest the asset is approaching oversold conditions. RSI dropped to 32 by the early morning hours, indicating potential for a near-term bounce but not a reversal. MACD remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram widening as the decline accelerated. This divergence between RSI and MACD could hint at a temporary pause in selling, but not a definitive bottom. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the decline, reflecting heightened uncertainty and increased trading range.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of 9.56e-06 to the low of 8.42e-06 show key levels at 9.04e-06 (38.2%) and 8.80e-06 (61.8%). Price briefly bounced off the 61.8% level but failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the 15-minute chart, the 50-period moving average is now acting as a dynamic resistance, with the 20-period line pulling below it. While short-term bounces are possible, a close below 8.62e-06 could extend the move toward the next support at 8.48e-06.

The backtest strategy under consideration focuses on identifying Bearish Engulfing patterns as a signal to initiate short positions on iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC). These candlestick patterns typically indicate a potential shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish and are best confirmed when they occur near key resistance levels or trendlines. The strategy would involve entering short positions at the close of the engulfing candle and setting stop-loss levels just above the high of the engulfing pattern. The exit strategy would be based on a Fibonacci retracement target of 61.8%, or a reversal signal such as a bullish candlestick pattern or a positive MACD crossover.
This approach is being refined due to the current limitations in data availability for the symbol “RLCBTC” on the selected data source. To proceed with the backtest, the correct symbol convention on a specific exchange (e.g., BINANCE:RLCBTC) needs to be confirmed. Once that is resolved, the strategy can be applied to the 2022–2025 timeframe to assess its effectiveness in predicting short-term bearish moves like the one observed on 2025-11-09.