Market Overview for iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) - 2025-11-03

• Price declined from 8.16e-6 to 7.37e-6 over the last 24 hours with mixed RSI and MACD signals.
• Volatility increased, with Bollinger Bands expanding following a sharp pullback in the last 6 hours.
• A large-volume selloff at 19:45 ET led to a 1.3% downward gap in 15-minute price action.
• On-balance volume showed divergence as price fell but volume remained muted after the 02:15 ET low.
• Key support levels at 7.5e-6 and 7.36e-6 were tested, with mixed follow-through after each.

The iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) pair opened at 7.92e-6 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 8.16e-6 and a low of 7.36e-6 before closing at 7.37e-6 as of 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour total trading volume was approximately 22,497.0 units, with a notional turnover that reflected the increased volatility.

Price action over the last 24 hours showed a distinct bearish bias, especially after the sharp pullback in the early hours of 2025-11-03. A key moment came at 19:45 ET, when a large-volume candle (2404.7 units) triggered a sharp drop from 8.1e-6 to 8.03e-6, signaling possible bearish momentum. The pair then consolidated in a downtrend, breaking through key Fibonacci levels and testing support at 7.5e-6 and 7.36e-6 with mixed follow-through.

Looking at the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both, reinforcing the bearish tone. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA sits above the 100-day MA, indicating a more neutral to bearish outlook. The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 19:30 ET, confirming the bearish shift, while the RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30) at 02:15 ET, though price failed to bounce meaningfully. Bollinger Bands were wide at the end of the period, suggesting heightened volatility as the market retested key support levels.

Volume was unevenly distributed, with significant spikes during the sharp selloffs but muted follow-through after key lows. A divergence was observed in on-balance volume after the 02:15 ET low, where price continued to fall despite declining volume. This could indicate waning bearish conviction. However, given the recent aggressive selling and lack of strong bullish counter-momentum, the market may remain in a consolidation phase or see further testing of support levels.

The RSI and MACD indicators, both central to assessing momentum and potential trade signals, are key components for backtesting the "RSI Oversold" strategy. Given the current RSI readings in oversold territory, it would be instructive to assess how such a setup historically performs. A typical approach is to enter a long position when RSI drops below a set level (e.g., 30) and exit when it recovers to 50 or 70. Alternatively, a fixed holding period could be combined with a stop-loss to manage risk.

The RSI Oversold strategy could be tested with the following parameters:

• Entry Condition: Enter long when RSI falls below 30.
• Exit Condition (Option 1): Exit when RSI rises above 50.
• Exit Condition (Option 2): Exit after 5 trading days or when RSI rises above 50, whichever comes first.
• Stop-Loss: Optional, set at a fixed percentage below entry price (e.g., 5%).

This setup would aim to capture short-term bullish rebounds from oversold conditions, especially in a market like RLCBTC that exhibits distinct pullbacks and consolidation phases.