Market Overview for iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) on 2025-10-24

• Price action remains range-bound amid low volume and muted volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged during early trading but failed to sustain downward momentum.
• RSI and MACD show neutral readings, with no clear overbought or oversold signals.
• Bollinger Bands have contracted, signaling potential for a breakout or breakout failure.
• Turnover remains subdued, suggesting limited interest and participation in the RLCBTC pair.

The iExec RLC/Bitcoin pair (RLCBTC) opened at 7.82e-06 on 2025-10-23 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of 7.97e-06 during the 24-hour period, with a low of 7.71e-06. The 24-hour close at 12:00 ET was 7.71e-06. Total volume was 17,051.7 units traded, with a notional turnover of approximately $RLCBTC * volume (actual BTC value not provided). The lack of price volatility and low volume suggest minimal directional bias.

Structure and candlestick patterns revealed a bearish engulfing candle on October 23 at 17:00 ET, where RLCBTC opened at 7.86e-06 and closed at 7.83e-06, fully engulfing the previous 15-minute candle. However, the bearish momentum failed to carry through, as prices retested this level multiple times without breaking below. Notable support levels appear at 7.71e-06 and 7.76e-06, with resistance forming near 7.81e-06 and 7.88e-06. A long lower shadow on the candle at October 24, 06:30 ET, indicates rejection near 7.97e-06, reinforcing its role as a potential resistance.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are closely aligned, suggesting a flat trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA (not explicitly calculated here) would likely sit above the 200-period SMA, maintaining a neutral to bearish bias. RSI stands near 50, indicating a balanced momentum state, while MACD remains in the neutral zone with no clear divergence. These indicators suggest no strong directional momentum. Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly, pointing to a possible breakout scenario, though the lack of volume suggests market participants may be uncertain about the direction.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the October 24 high of 7.97e-06 and the recent low of 7.71e-06 highlight key levels. The 38.2% retracement is near 7.86e-06, and the 61.8% is at approximately 7.83e-06, both of which have seen price tests but not sustained moves. The convergence of Fibonacci levels with prior resistance and support zones adds technical significance to these areas. However, the absence of strong volume confirms the lack of conviction behind these levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy focuses on a systematic approach to trading RLCBTC using a bearish engulfing pattern as the entry signal and an objective exit rule tied to swing-high resistance levels. By defining swing highs as points where the high exceeds the previous and next 10-day highs, the exit rule ensures a clear, unambiguous target for closing the position. If no such swing high is reached within 30 days, a forced exit is triggered to manage risk. The stop-loss at 8% below the entry adds a critical risk-control layer. This method aims to test the profitability of short-term countertrend trading on a well-defined technical pattern, leveraging precise definitions to avoid subjective interpretation in a pair with low volume and sporadic price movement. The performance against a buy-and-hold benchmark will offer insights into whether this pattern-based strategy adds value in the RLCBTC context.