Market Overview for iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) on 2025-10-11

• RLCBTC fell sharply from 8.94e-06 to 7.53e-06, with oversold RSI and heavy volume during the decline.
• Bollinger Bands show strong volatility expansion and price near the lower band, suggesting bearish pressure.
• A bullish reversal pattern appears near 7.53e-06, but volume remains weak to confirm follow-through.
• Momentum indicators indicate a potential short-term bounce, though the broader trend remains bearish.
• Total turnover increased by 60% during the selloff, signaling potential exhaustion near current levels.

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 10, 2025, RLCBTC opened at 8.83e-06, peaked at 8.94e-06, and hit a low of 6.95e-06, closing at 7.53e-06 as of 12:00 ET on October 11. Total 24-hour volume reached 183,760.4 BTC, and turnover surged to $1,364,336.1, up 60% from the prior day. The sharp drop and sustained volatility suggest a critical test of near-term support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish breakdown from 8.94e-06, with a key support level confirmed at 7.53e-06 following a rejection from 7.45e-06. A bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 8.94e-06–8.88e-06, followed by a series of lower highs and lower closes. A potential bullish reversal candle appeared at 7.53e-06, but volume failed to confirm strong conviction. A small bearish doji also formed near 7.56e-06, suggesting indecision and the risk of further consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, with price below both. The 20 MA crossed below the 50 MA at 7.7e-06, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period MAs are converging lower, indicating a medium-term bearish bias. A potential bullish crossover may occur if price rebounds above 7.7e-06 and holds.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative sharply after 17:30 ET–1, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory at 7.53e-06, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the divergence between price and RSI suggests a weak bullish signal, as RSI did not bottom earlier than price. A sustained close above 7.65e-06 may bring RSI back into neutral territory and indicate potential for a short-covering rally.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening past 0.12e-06. Price closed near the lower band at 7.53e-06, indicating potential for a bounce. However, the width of the bands and the bearish trend suggest that any rebound may be short-lived unless buyers step in at 7.65e-06 and above. A sustained move back toward the upper band would require a sharp reversal and high-volume follow-through.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 7.53e-06 (21,379.4 BTC) with a corresponding turnover of $155,916.6, signaling heavy selling pressure. Despite the sharp drop, volume remained elevated at 183,760.4 BTC for the 24-hour period, suggesting active participation from both sellers and buyers. However, a divergence between volume and price is visible near 7.53e-06, with volume failing to confirm a strong reversal. This could imply a bear trap or a consolidation phase ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the most recent 15-minute swing from 8.94e-06 to 7.08e-06, key levels include 38.2% at 7.75e-06 and 61.8% at 7.47e-06. Price found initial support at 7.53e-06, slightly below 61.8%, indicating potential for further consolidation before a possible test of 7.47e-06. If buyers fail to defend these levels, a test of 7.19e-06 becomes likely. Conversely, a breakout above 7.75e-06 may suggest the bearish move has ended, with a retest of 7.81e-06 as a next target.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a long position when RSI dips below 30, price closes above the lower Bollinger Band, and volume increases by at least 50% from the previous 15-minute bar. This setup would have been triggered at 7.53e-06 with strong RSI divergence and a 60% increase in turnover. However, the lack of follow-through volume at 7.53e-06 weakens the signal, suggesting caution for long entries. A short-term long position could still be considered, with a stop loss placed below 7.45e-06 and a target at 7.65e-06.