Market Overview: iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) – 2025-10-03

• RLCBTC declined 0.76% over the past 24 hours with a low of 9.01e-06 and a high of 9.33e-06.
• Price spent the session consolidating near support at 9.05e-06, testing key Fibonacci levels.
• Volume spiked near session lows, suggesting accumulation or distribution activity.
• RSI remains in oversold territory at 29, indicating potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show narrowing volatility toward the end of the session.

RLCBTC opened at 9.21e-06 on 2025-10-02 at 16:00 ET and closed at 9.05e-06 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 9.33e-06 and a low of 9.01e-06 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 22,024.6 units, and notional turnover (amount) totaled 94. Total volume and turnover suggest a moderately active session, with key price action occurring toward the latter half.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a gradual descent throughout the session, with two notable consolidation phases. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 01:30–02:30 ET, followed by a potential bullish hammer at 09:45–10:00 ET. A key support level was identified at 9.05e-06, which was tested multiple times and held. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the high of 9.33e-06 to the low of 9.01e-06 coincided with this support level, reinforcing its significance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish crossover, indicating downward pressure. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is above the 200-period, suggesting a long-term bearish bias. Price remains below key moving averages, increasing the likelihood of a continuation of the current downtrend in the short term.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory throughout the session, with a bearish crossover at the mid-point. RSI fell to 29 by the end of the session, entering oversold territory, which may hint at a potential short-term rebound. However, the divergence between price and RSI near the session low suggests caution, as it could indicate a false reversal attempt.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a narrowing trend in the final hours of the session, particularly between 09:00–11:30 ET, indicating a potential contraction in volatility ahead of a possible breakout or reversal. Price closed near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish sentiment and signaling potential for a bounce or continuation of the downtrend depending on the strength of volume in the next session.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover were generally aligned, with spikes occurring during key support tests, especially around 01:15–01:30 ET and 11:30–12:00 ET. The largest volume spike occurred at 01:15 ET, coinciding with a significant drop in price. No clear divergence between price and turnover was observed, suggesting the selling pressure remained consistent with price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the swing high of 9.33e-06 and low of 9.01e-06, the 38.2% retracement level is at approximately 9.16e-06 and the 61.8% is at 9.05e-06. The price closed near the 61.8% level, which was the key support area. If the price breaks below this level, the next target could be the 78.6% retracement at 9.00e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on a mean-reversion approach triggered by RSI oversold conditions and a Bollinger Band contraction. A potential entry point was observed near the 09:45–10:00 ET session, where RSI was near oversold levels and price was consolidating within a narrowing Bollinger Band. The target for a short-term reversal was set near the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 9.16e-06, with a stop-loss placed just below 9.00e-06. This aligns well with the observed price behavior and could serve as a basis for a backtest using historical 15-minute data to evaluate success probability and risk-adjusted returns.