Market Overview for iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) – 2025-09-22

• Price action declined sharply from 1.033e-05 to 9.46e-06 over 24 hours.
• Momentum weakened as RSI fell below 30, indicating oversold territory.
• Volatility increased with a wide range of 1.033e-05 to 9.46e-06.
• Volume surged after 06:15 ET, coinciding with the major drop in price.
• Bollinger Bands show recent price near the lower band, signaling potential support.

Structure & Formations

RLCBTC experienced a significant downtrend with the formation of bearish engulfing patterns in the early hours of 09/22, notably at 00:45 ET and 02:30 ET. A key support level appears at 9.50e-06, where the price bounced slightly on multiple occasions. No clear resistance levels were identified due to the strong bearish bias. A long lower shadow at 06:15 ET and a sharp decline in volume at 05:45 ET indicate potential exhaustion in the sell-off, though a reversal is not yet confirmed.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a steepening bearish crossover after 01:00 ET, reinforcing the downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA crosses below the 100 and 200-period SMAs, signaling a bearish trend continuation. The price is well below all major moving averages, suggesting further downside could be in play in the short term.

MACD & RSI

MACD shows a deep bearish divergence with the price, confirming the aggressive sell-off, especially after 02:00 ET. The histogram has shrunk slightly in the last few hours, suggesting a possible slowdown in selling pressure. RSI has fallen below 30 and remains in oversold territory, but without a clear reversal candlestick or volume confirmation, a rebound may still be delayed.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly due to increased volatility, with the price hovering near the lower band most of the day. This suggests the pair is trading in a strong downtrend with support possibly forming near the 9.44e-06–9.50e-06 range. A break below 9.44e-06 could lead to a test of the next level at 9.40e-06.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after 06:15 ET, coinciding with a 10% drop in price, indicating a liquidity crunch or aggressive selling. Despite the volume surge, turnover did not confirm the strength of the move, indicating some slippage or low liquidity. Price and turnover appear to be diverging after 09:45 ET, suggesting a potential pause in the trend. The low volume during the early hours of the day suggests a lack of participation in the initial sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing high of 1.035e-05 and low of 9.44e-06, the 38.2% level is at 9.91e-06 and the 61.8% level is at 9.65e-06. The price has tested the 61.8% level twice since 06:00 ET, but failed to hold above it. A test of the 38.2% level in the next 24 hours could indicate a potential countertrend rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when the price closes below the 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing candle and a volume spike. The stop-loss could be placed at the most recent swing high, and the target could be the next Fibonacci level. This strategy aligns with the current bearish momentum and could be effective if the downtrend continues. A long position could be considered on a rebound above 9.50e-06, supported by a bullish reversal pattern and volume confirmation, though the likelihood is lower given the current momentum.