Market Overview for iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) as of 2025-09-20

• Price declined intraday from 1.04e-05 to 1.012e-05 but closed at 1.027e-05 near mid-range.
• RSI and MACD suggest waning bearish momentum with no clear overbought/oversold extremes.
• Volatility expanded during the overnight ETH-UTC window, with volume surging to 9881.4 BTC.
• Bollinger Bands showed a mid-day contraction followed by a wide expansion post 01:00 ET.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed late morning, but failed to hold above 1.03e-05 resistance.

24-Hour Summary and Open-Close Range

The iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) pair opened at 1.037e-05 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 1.036e-05, and declined to a low of 1.012e-05 before closing at 1.027e-05 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded over the 24-hour window amounted to 28,557.8 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 2.94 BTC-equivalent.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

RLCBTC exhibited a bearish bias during the early morning hours, with a key breakdown to 1.012e-05 followed by a partial recovery. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the early morning (01:00–01:15 ET), but failed to close above the 1.03e-05 level. The price action displayed a lack of conviction in both directions, with several doji and small-bodied candles forming after 02:00 ET, suggesting a consolidation phase.

Key support levels were identified at 1.012e-05 and 1.023e-05, while resistance levels appeared around 1.03e-05 and 1.035e-05. A bearish breakdown below 1.023e-05 could open the door to 1.018e-05.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed in a bearish divergence, indicating a potential continuation of downward momentum. However, on the daily chart, the 50DMA and 100DMA are converging at 1.027e-05, suggesting that the price is consolidating near a critical psychological level.

Momentum Indicators: MACD and RSI

The 12/26/9 MACD histogram showed bearish divergence in the early morning, with the line crossing below the signal line. The RSI hovered around the 45–50 level for most of the day, indicating moderate momentum without clear overbought or oversold signals. A sustained break above 60 on RSI would suggest a bullish reversal, while a drop below 40 could indicate renewed bearish pressure.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands showed a distinct contraction around 18:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion after the 01:00 ET low. Price broke out of the lower band during the overnight ETH-UTC session, suggesting heightened volatility. Currently, RLCBTC is trading near the mid-band, indicating no immediate overextension. A re-test of the upper band at 1.036e-05 may provide a short-term resistance test.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked dramatically during the overnight ETH-UTC window, with a massive trade of 9881.4 BTC driving the price down to 1.012e-05. The volume surged again in the morning as price recovered, but notional turnover failed to confirm a strong bullish reversal. This divergence suggests that large holders may still be net sellers, despite short-term retail buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the overnight low (1.012e-05) and the prior high (1.036e-05), key retracement levels include 38.2% at 1.028e-05 and 61.8% at 1.022e-05. Price closed at 1.027e-05, just above the 38.2% retracement level. A break above 1.028e-05 could see a test of 1.032e-05, while a failure to hold above 1.022e-05 may indicate further weakness.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price behavior and the presence of both bearish breakdowns and bullish engulfing patterns, a backtest hypothesis could focus on a mean-reversion strategy that triggers on a close above the 38.2% Fibonacci level (1.028e-05) and exits on a break below the 1.023e-05 support level. The RSI hovering near the midpoint (45–50) and the convergence of moving averages around 1.027e-05 suggest that this is a viable entry zone for short-term traders looking to capture potential retracement. The volume divergence during the overnight ETH-UTC session and the bearish MACD crossover further justify this strategy’s reliance on trend continuation.