Market Overview for iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) as of 2025-09-19 12:00 ET

• Price declined sharply from 1.062e-05 to 1.034e-05, with a final close of 1.042e-05.
• Volume spiked at 3296.8 (18:45 ET) and 2386.8 (15:30 ET), coinciding with key price reversals.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum during the 19–23:00 ET selloff.
• Volatility expanded around 01:45–02:00 ET, with a wide 1.067e-05 to 1.059e-05 range.
• Price found temporary support near 1.034e-05 and 1.035e-05, showing some short-term resilience.

RLC/Bitcoin opened at 1.047e-05 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.067e-05, and closed at 1.042e-05 on 2025-09-19 12:00 ET, forming a bearish 24-hour candle. The pair experienced a 0.37% decline over the period. Total volume amounted to 19,960.5, with a notional turnover of approximately 2.049 BTC. Price action was marked by a strong sell-off from late evening into the night and a modest recovery during morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure for the 24-hour period reveals several bearish formations. Notably, a long upper shadow was formed at the start of the period, indicating rejection at 1.062e-05. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 18:00–18:15 ET, with a large red candle closing at 1.056e-05 after an attempted rally. A doji formed at 16:45 ET, signaling indecision before the price drop. The price found support twice at 1.034e-05 and 1.035e-05, with a moderate rebound occurring from the 1.034e-05 level on the morning of the 19th. These levels may act as short-term floors to watch.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA both crossed below the price between 18:00–20:00 ET, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period MA has been trending downward throughout the day. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period MAs are both below the price, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The 200-period MA also acts as a psychological floor near 1.031e-05, suggesting that a further decline may be capped by that level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the late evening and remained so, with a bearish crossover occurring around 18:15 ET. The histogram expanded as the bearish pressure intensified, peaking at 20:00–22:00 ET. RSI fell sharply during the selloff, dropping into oversold territory below 30 by 02:00 ET. However, a rebound in the morning brought RSI back to neutral levels, suggesting that the correction may not yet be complete. Both indicators appear to confirm a continuation of bearish bias unless a sustained rally above 1.05e-05 is established.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly around 01:45–02:00 ET, as the price moved from 1.067e-05 to 1.059e-05 within a single 15-minute candle. Price remained within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, indicating bearish dominance. A narrow band contraction was observed during 03:00–04:00 ET, suggesting a potential reversal could be on the horizon. However, the price has since tested the lower band multiple times without breaking out, indicating that sellers remain in control for now.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 18:45 ET (3296.8) and again at 15:30 ET (2386.8), both coinciding with significant price reversals. These spikes suggest strong institutional or large-capacity selling pressure during the former and a bearish consolidation during the latter. The volume was generally below average during the morning recovery, indicating that the buying interest may not be strong enough to reverse the trend. A divergence between price and volume was observed during the 04:15–05:00 ET period, where the price dropped sharply without a corresponding increase in volume—suggesting a temporary exhaustion of selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 1.067e-05 to 1.034e-05, the price found support at the 61.8% retracement level near 1.035e-05 and tested the 38.2% level at 1.051e-05 twice. These levels have acted as short-term pivots. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the larger bearish move (not visible in this 24-hour data) would be near 1.039e-05, which the price has already tested twice. A break below 1.035e-05 could trigger further Fibonacci extensions toward 1.029e-05.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on a combination of RSI oversold readings, a bearish MACD crossover, and volume confirmation for short-term bearish entries. A typical setup would involve entering a short position when RSI dips below 30, MACD turns negative, and volume increases by 20% above the 20-period average. Stops could be placed just above the previous 15-minute high, with targets aligned with Fibonacci levels or key support zones. This strategy appears to align with the observed price behavior during the 01:00–03:00 ET period, where RSI was oversold and volume surged. Testing this strategy over multiple cycles would provide insights into its effectiveness in volatile markets like RLCBTC.