Market Overview for iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) on 2025-09-13

• Price fluctuated between 1.09e-05 and 1.113e-05, closing near 1.095e-05 after an early AM rebound.
• RSI showed overbought conditions mid-day, followed by a bearish divergence as price declined.
• Volume spiked during the 0345–0500 ET window, confirming a short-term breakout and subsequent pullback.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, indicating increased volatility around key levels.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 0330 ET, but failed to hold amid fading momentum.

Opening and Closing Summary

iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) opened at 1.086e-05 on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.113e-05, and closed at 1.095e-05 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 37,596.5, with a total notional turnover of 4.129 (RLC × BTC).

Structure & Formations

The RLCBTC pair formed a bullish engulfing candle at 0330 ET, signaling a potential short-term reversal, but followed it with a large bearish candle at 0500 ET that erased most of the gains. A doji emerged at 1.103e-05 during the 0530 ET window, hinting at indecision. The key support level appeared to be forming at 1.095e-05, which was tested twice and held. Resistance clustered between 1.103e-05 and 1.113e-05, where volume spiked and price action stalled.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed below the price during the early AM hours, signaling bearish momentum. The 200-day moving average remains above the 50-day MA, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion during the 0300–0600 ET period, with price trading near the upper and lower bands, indicating high volatility and increased risk of a consolidation phase.

Momentum and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The RSI reached overbought levels above 65 during the early morning hours, peaking at 72 before a sharp decline. By midday, RSI fell below 45, signaling a potential oversold condition. The MACD line crossed below the signal line at 0500 ET, confirming a bearish divergence that aligned with the volume spike. Price failed to confirm a short-term breakout, and the momentum indicators suggest a potential for a counter-trend rally if support at 1.095e-05 holds.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume was notably higher between 0330 and 0530 ET, with a peak of 2,214.0 at 0500 ET. Turnover spiked at the same time, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, the divergence between price and turnover from 0600 ET onward suggests a potential exhaustion of selling pressure. Look for volume confirmation on the next bullish move to validate a possible short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from 1.095e-05 to 1.113e-05, the 61.8% level at 1.102e-05 acted as a key resistance zone. Price stalled at that level and reversed downward. The 38.2% retracement at 1.099e-05 provided temporary support before the final leg down. These levels may offer strategic entry or exit points as price consolidates or tests these levels again in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern forming above the 20SMA, with a stop-loss placed below the 50SMA. A short position could be triggered upon a bearish divergence in RSI above 65, confirmed by a volume spike and a break below the 50SMA. This strategy would require strict risk management, particularly during high-volatility windows like those observed on 2025-09-13, and should be tested over multiple cycles to account for varying market conditions and order flow anomalies.