Market Overview for iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) on 2025-09-05

• iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) declined by -1.58% over the past 24 hours, with bearish momentum visible in late-session sell-offs.
• Volatility spiked during Asian and European hours, marked by a 15-minute drop of -187 basis points.
• Notional turnover surged 38x the daily average during a 45-minute window, signaling increased short-term interest.
• Price failed to retest key resistance near 1.191e-05 and remained below key moving averages.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence, reinforcing the possibility of continued downward bias in the near term.

RLCBTC opened at 1.14e-05 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded between 1.14e-05 and 1.191e-05 before closing at 1.152e-05 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 227,242.2 RLC, with a notional turnover of 2.67 BTC, driven by a sharp sell-off early in the Asian session.

Structure & Formations

RLCBTC tested a key resistance level at 1.191e-05 in the early hours of the morning but failed to hold above, leading to a breakdown and a retest of 1.14e-05, which acted as a key support. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 00:30–00:45 ET window, followed by a large bearish harami pattern during the 02:45–03:00 window, both signaling increased bearish control. The price action suggests a consolidation phase may form around 1.15e-05, but without a clear bullish reversal pattern, further declines into 1.13e-05 are likely.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish, with the price consistently below both throughout the session. The 20 MA ended at 1.156e-05, and the 50 MA at 1.162e-05, both indicating a downward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 1.16e-05, while the 200-period MA is at 1.145e-05, suggesting a potential support zone around 1.15e-05 to 1.145e-05.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed into negative territory in the early morning hours and remained bearish for the duration of the session, with a low of -0.007e-05 and no signs of a bullish crossover. The RSI dropped to a 38.2% Fibonacci level near 42 during the Asian session and failed to close above 50, indicating ongoing bearish momentum. A reading below 40 suggests oversold conditions, but without a corresponding volume spike or bullish reversal, this may not lead to a meaningful bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within a 1.14e-05 to 1.191e-05 range, with volatility expanding sharply during the 00:30–00:45 ET window following the large-volume breakdown. The upper band was at 1.191e-05, and the lower band was at 1.14e-05. The price closed near the lower band, indicating a bearish bias. A potential bounce to test the mid-band at 1.165e-05 may occur, but a failure to do so could lead to further consolidation or a new test of the lower boundary.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged to 22,794.5 RLC during the 00:30–00:45 ET window, which coincided with the breakdown below 1.16e-05 and a sharp drop to 1.149e-05. Notional turnover peaked at 2.67 BTC, driven by a 187 basis point decline. While volume and turnover were high during the sell-off, they remained muted during the subsequent consolidation phase, suggesting reduced conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 1.191e-05 and low of 1.14e-05 were as follows: 38.2% at 1.165e-05 and 61.8% at 1.157e-05. The price closed near the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting that further support is likely to be found around the 1.152e-05–1.147e-05 range. A breakdown below 1.14e-05 could see price retesting the 50% level at 1.165e-05 before finding a new base.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure and momentum indicators, a potential backtesting strategy could be built around a short bias with entry at the 1.15e-05–1.152e-05 range, targeting a stop loss above the 1.165e-05 Fibonacci level. A take-profit target of 1.13e-05 aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the recent high. This approach would be most effective if combined with a volume filter to confirm entry and exit points. The recent volume spike during the breakdown supports the use of volume as a confirmation signal, particularly for short-term trades.