Market Overview for IDEX/Tether (IDEXUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• IDEX/Tether declined by 2.5% over 24 hours amid bearish momentum and declining turnover.
• Key support at 0.02530 and resistance near 0.02580 were tested multiple times.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours before retracting, pointing to consolidation.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, but volume remains weak, casting doubt on a reversal.
• A potential breakdown below 0.02520 could trigger further bearish moves.

IDEX/Tether (IDEXUSDT) opened at 0.02577 (12:00 ET − 1), reached a high of 0.02605, and closed at 0.02491 (12:00 ET) after hitting a low of 0.0245. Total volume was 5,172,798.1 and total turnover reached $127,710 over 24 hours. Price action shows a bearish continuation from previous pressure, with no immediate signs of reversal.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key support levels at 0.02530 and 0.02520 multiple times during the session, with a breakdown below 0.02520 confirming a bearish trend. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 09:00 ET as price gapped down to 0.02501 from 0.02523. A doji formed near 0.02500 in the early hours, suggesting indecision and a possible short-term consolidation before the next move. The low at 0.0245 marks the strongest bearish level of the session and may signal the start of a new downtrend if confirmed by volume and follow-through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period SMA on the daily chart remains above the 200-period SMA, showing that the intermediate trend is still bearish but has not yet reached critical levels. A retest of the 50-period SMA on the daily chart at 0.02555 may trigger a pullback, but sustained bearish pressure could drag it lower in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped below 30 during the session, entering oversold territory, but failed to generate a strong bounce, indicating weak buying interest. The MACD line turned negative and remains below the signal line, with a bearish divergence forming in the last few hours. This suggests that the downward momentum is likely to persist, at least in the short term, unless a strong volume-driven reversal occurs.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the early part of the session as price moved from 0.02523 to 0.02491, with the bands widening in response. Price is now trading near the lower Bollinger band, suggesting it is in a low-risk, high-probability bearish zone. A move back toward the middle band could trigger a rebound, but only if volume increases to confirm buying interest.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning session around 09:00 ET when the large bearish candle formed, confirming the breakdown. However, the subsequent bearish move toward the session low occurred on lower volume, signaling a lack of conviction in the bearish move. Turnover dropped after 10:00 ET, indicating a period of exhaustion and potential pause ahead. A sharp increase in volume above the 0.02520 level may indicate a short-covering rally, but a lack of follow-through volume would suggest otherwise.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.02605 to 0.02491, key levels at 0.02550 (38.2%) and 0.02527 (61.8%) were tested. The 61.8% level failed to hold as price broke through, confirming bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a recent major move from 0.02605 to 0.02450 is at 0.02526, which aligns with the 15-minute level and may serve as a key retest point in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves a long entry on a bullish engulfing pattern forming near a key Fibonacci level with volume confirmation. Based on today's data, the strategy would not have triggered any long entries, as the engulfing patterns observed were bearish and volume was weak after the initial breakdown. A short entry based on a breakdown below the 61.8% retracement level with volume confirmation may have provided a viable signal. The strategy would have faced a risk of false signals in the current low-volume, consolidating phase, but could gain traction if the breakdown below 0.02520 is confirmed with strong follow-through.