Market Overview for IDEX/Tether on 2025-09-23

• IDEX/Tether traded in a tight range on high volatility, forming bearish patterns in early morning hours.
• Price dropped to a 24-hour low of 0.02468 before partial recovery, indicating mixed sentiment.
• RSI and MACD show divergence, suggesting possible momentum exhaustion after a sharp decline.
• Total volume surged to ~13.5 million contracts, with turnover increasing to ~$0.34 million.
• Volatility expanded in the overnight session, with price moving outside the lower Bollinger Band.

The IDEX/Tether pair opened at 0.02513 on September 22 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.02500 exactly 24 hours later. The pair reached a high of 0.02528 and a low of 0.02468 during the period. With a total volume of approximately 13,506,853.4 contracts and a notional turnover of ~$0.34 million, the pair showed elevated activity, particularly during the early morning hours in Asia and Europe. Price action suggests a bearish bias in the overnight session, with a recovery attempt in the afternoon.

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish structure as price broke below a key support level around 0.0249–0.0250, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a long bearish shadow in the early morning. A doji formed at 0.02486 on the 03:00 candle, hinting at indecision. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both sloping downward, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period MA is above the 20-period, suggesting a bearish crossover trend. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are converging, but price remains below the 200 MA, indicating a longer-term bearish trend.

RSI dipped into oversold territory in the early morning but did not trigger a strong reversal, while MACD showed a bearish crossover with a weak histogram. This divergence between volume and momentum indicators raises questions about the sustainability of the current move. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly overnight, with price falling to the lower band at 0.02468 before rebounding. This could suggest increased volatility or the start of a trend. Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent high of 0.02528 and low of 0.02468 indicate key retracement levels at 0.02503 (38.2%) and 0.02488 (61.8%), where price may find temporary support or resistance.

The volume profile aligns with the bearish momentum, with a sharp spike in volume during the overnight selloff. However, a divergence in volume and price is visible in the early morning, where volume decreased slightly while price continued downward, suggesting weaker conviction in the bearish move. The high turnover of ~$0.34 million indicates increased participation, likely from short-term traders and algorithmic strategies capitalizing on the volatility. A potential short-term bounce is expected, but without a clear breakout above 0.0252, the bearish bias could persist. Traders should monitor the 0.02488 level for any further breakdown, with a target of 0.02460 and a stop-loss above 0.0252. Given the recent volatility and mixed signals, the next 24 hours could see continued range-bound action or a decisive trend formation.

The backtesting strategy involves using a combination of RSI and Bollinger Bands to identify oversold conditions and volatility expansions. The hypothesis is that when price touches the lower Bollinger Band and RSI dips into oversold territory (<30), a short-term rebound is likely. This approach was validated during the selloff at 0.02468, where RSI hit 30 and price rebounded within two candles. The strategy would trigger a long entry with a tight stop at the lowest point of the Bollinger Band expansion, targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci level. While this approach showed potential in this case, its efficacy may vary in different market environments and requires further testing over multiple cycles.