Market Overview: Horizen/Bitcoin (ZENBTC) 24-Hour Summary for 2025-09-25

• Price declined sharply from 5.981e-05 to 5.766e-05 on heavy volume after 20:00 ET.
• Oversold RSI conditions emerged as price tested a support level near 5.8e-05.
• Bollinger Bands contracted during the night before a sharp break to the downside.
• Volume spiked to 1,809.9 ZENBTC during the early morning bearish move.
• A bullish reversal attempt began in the last 4 hours, with a test of the 5.85e-05 level.

The 24-hour candle for ZENBTC opened at 5.981e-05 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24, reached a high of 6.101e-05, and closed at 5.85e-05 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The total traded volume was 9,968.77 ZENBTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $575.94 (using BTC price of $68,000 as proxy). Price action revealed a sharp bearish move in the early morning hours, followed by a partial recovery in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

A clear descending trend emerged over the 24-hour period, with key resistance levels forming around 5.931e-05 and 5.981e-05. Price failed to break above these levels, leading to a bearish breakdown. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 5.905e-05 to 5.849e-05, confirming downward momentum. A possible support level was identified near 5.8e-05, where price stabilized for several hours but failed to rally decisively.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, reinforcing bearish momentum. The daily chart showed the price below the 50DMA and approaching the 100DMA. A potential bounce could occur if the price retests the 200DMA, though this appears unlikely given current positioning.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram contracted during the night before a bearish crossover, aligning with the sharp price drop. The RSI dipped below 30 in the early hours, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a strong rebound. Momentum remains bearish, with no sign of a reversal in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility initially remained low, with Bollinger Bands narrowly constricting before a sharp break to the downside. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting a high probability of further consolidation or a test of the 5.7e-05 psychological level if the move continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 1,809.9 ZENBTC at 08:45 ET, coinciding with the most significant bearish move of the day. Despite this, turnover did not follow proportionally, indicating possible liquidity exhaustion or order block exhaustion. Price and volume diverged slightly after 12:00 ET as the recovery attempt lacked conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the 5.981e-05 to 5.766e-05 swing included 38.2% at 5.855e-05 and 61.8% at 5.813e-05. Price tested both levels with mixed success. On a daily timeframe, 5.85e-05 marks the 38.2% retracement from a broader downtrend, suggesting a potential pivot point for the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on capturing short-term bearish momentum using a 15-minute timeframe. A sell entry could be triggered on a bearish engulfing pattern below a key support level, with a stop-loss just above the pattern’s high and a take-profit at the next Fibonacci level (e.g., 5.813e-05). This strategy would align with the observed bearish breakdown and would have captured a significant portion of the 09:00–10:00 ET price move. The RSI oversold condition could act as a confirmation filter before entering the trade. While the strategy shows promise, it is sensitive to volatility and requires strict risk management to avoid drawdowns during consolidation phases.