Market Overview for Horizen/Bitcoin (ZENBTC) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-02 12:00 ET–2025-10-03 12:00 ET)

• ZENBTC declined 0.95% over 24 hours, with price falling below key support at $8.45e-05.
• Increased bearish momentum confirmed by declining RSI and negative MACD divergence.
• Volatility expanded in the early session, with volume peaking above $900 as price dropped sharply.
• Bollinger Bands widened after 17:00 ET, indicating heightened market uncertainty.
• A potential short-term bounce may face resistance at $8.41e-05, with key support at $8.11e-05.

At 12:00 ET on October 3, ZENBTC was trading at $8.159e-05, down from an open of $8.599e-05, with a high of $8.922e-05 and a low of $7.892e-05. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 29,908.83, and notional turnover amounted to $2.45 (based on weighted average prices). The pair showed a bearish bias throughout, with a key breakdown in early trading triggering further weakness.

Structure & Formations

Price opened in a bullish fashion at $8.599e-05 but quickly faced selling pressure, forming a bearish engulfing pattern by 17:00 ET. The session’s low at $7.892e-05 marked a potential short-term support zone. A bearish trendline has emerged from $8.922e-05 down to $7.892e-05, with resistance currently at $8.41e-05 and support at $8.11e-05. A bullish reversal is unlikely unless ZENBTC reclaims $8.45e-05.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA moved below the 50-period MA, reinforcing bearish momentum. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) suggest the pair remains below its 50-day average, indicating medium-term bearish pressure. A crossover above the 50-day MA would be a prerequisite for a near-term recovery.

MACD & RSI

The RSI fell below 30 during the late ET hours, signaling oversold conditions, though this does not necessarily imply a reversal. The MACD turned negative at 17:00 ET and remained bearish throughout the session. A potential bullish crossover in the next 24 hours may hint at short-term relief, but strong confirmation above $8.41e-05 would be required for conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 17:00 ET, with price dropping to the lower band at $7.892e-05. The band width increased from 0.05% to 1.5% in under 3 hours, reflecting heightened volatility. Price may retest the middle band at $8.20e-05, but the near-term bias remains bearish unless the bands contract and price stabilizes.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after 17:00 ET, with a total of 872.34 traded at $8.608e-05 and a further 979.45 traded at $7.988e-05. Notional turnover aligned with these volume spikes, confirming the bearish move. Price and turnover moved in tandem, suggesting no divergence and reinforcing the downward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute move from $8.922e-05 to $7.892e-05, key levels at 38.2% ($8.51e-05) and 61.8% ($8.32e-05) acted as soft resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a recent $0.15 move is at $8.20e-05, a potential area to watch for short-covering or a bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on ZENBTC when the price breaks below the 20-period MA and the RSI dips below 30, with a stop-loss placed at the most recent 15-minute high. A target can be set at the next Fibonacci support level or a Bollinger Band. Given today’s move, this setup appears validated, but confirmation on the next 24 hours’ chart will be essential to assess its robustness. Testing this over a larger historical window would clarify the strategy’s viability under different volatility and trend conditions.