Market Overview: Horizen/Bitcoin (ZENBTC) on 2025-10-06 to 2025-10-07

• ZENBTC traded in a tight range on October 6–7, consolidating between 7.59e-05 and 7.93e-05.
• Price closed lower at 7.692e-05 with a bearish bias, following a sharp intraday decline after 19:00 ET.
• Volume spiked at the session low but failed to confirm a reversal, suggesting bearish momentum may persist.
• RSI hovered near oversold levels, indicating potential short-term bounce, while Bollinger Bands showed compressed volatility.

Horizen/Bitcoin (ZENBTC) opened at 8.059e-05 on October 6 at 12:00 ET and closed at 7.692e-05 on October 7 at the same time. The 24-hour range extended from a high of 8.066e-05 to a low of 7.49e-05, reflecting a bearish bias. Total volume reached 11,991.25, while notional turnover was driven by a mix of small- to mid-sized orders.

The price action on ZENBTC unfolded in a series of bearish breakdowns, with strong selling pressure emerging from around 19:00 ET. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:15–19:30 ET, signaling a potential shift in sentiment. Support levels are emerging around 7.68e-05 and 7.54e-05, with the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart now acting as a dynamic resistance, currently at approximately 7.70e-05. The 50-period EMA continues to trend downward, reinforcing a bearish bias.

MACD has turned negative with a bearish crossover, suggesting momentum is firmly on the bear side. RSI approached oversold territory but failed to trigger a strong rebound, pointing to potential exhaustion in either direction. Bollinger Bands showed a period of compression before the sharp sell-off, indicating a potential breakout. The price closed below the lower band, supporting bearish continuation. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bear wave aligns near 7.55e-05, suggesting a likely target for near-term support.

Volume spiked at 19:15 ET with the largest trade contributing 2,269.35 in turnover, but failed to reverse the downward move, highlighting a bearish divergence. The 15-minute chart shows a lack of conviction in buying, with most candles closing below their midpoints. Turnover remains unevenly distributed, with the majority of trades concentrated in the early and late parts of the session. A key area to watch is 7.68e-05, where price may test the 20-period EMA and see if bearish momentum loses steam.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential trading strategy could involve entering short positions when ZENBTC breaks below the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop just above the most recent 15-minute high and a target based on the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent bear wave. Given the current bearish momentum and the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern, this setup could offer favorable risk-reward. A confirmation of a rebound above 7.70e-05 would invalidate the short bias, suggesting a possible consolidation phase instead.