Market Overview for Horizen/Bitcoin (ZENBTC) on 2025-10-04

• ZENBTC declined sharply in 24 hours, closing at 7.200e-05 with a 9.6% drop from the open.
• Volume spiked during early overnight bearish moves, aligning with price weakness.
• RSI hit oversold territory, while MACD showed bearish momentum with a large negative histogram.
• Price remained below all key moving averages, signaling a deep bearish bias.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed into consolidation before breaking to the downside with high conviction.

Horizen/Bitcoin (ZENBTC) opened at 7.902e-05 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 7.200e-05 on 2025-10-04 at the same time, hitting a high of 7.983e-05 and a low of 7.200e-05. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 15,306.29 ZEN, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.15M (using BTC as a proxy). The price action displayed a strong bearish bias, with key indicators confirming the downward momentum.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart showed a series of bearish engulfing and dark cloud cover patterns from 16:00 to 22:30 ET. A key support level appears to be forming around 7.200e-05, where the price closed on multiple occasions. Resistance levels are evident at 7.823e-05 and 7.902e-05, both of which have been rejected multiple times. The price has been trending below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend.

Technical Indicators

MACD remains in negative territory with a strong bearish crossover and a large negative histogram, indicating continued downward momentum. RSI has dipped into oversold territory (30) at the close, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce but not a reversal. Bollinger Bands tightened significantly during consolidation hours before breaking decisively to the downside, indicating heightened volatility and conviction in the bearish move. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the key 16:00 ET high is now at 7.350e-05, which may serve as a near-term resistance if the price tries to recover.

Looking forward, ZENBTC faces a high probability of testing the 7.200e-05 level again in the next 24 hours, with a potential for a small rebound if it holds. However, a break below this level could accelerate the decline toward 7.000e-05. Investors should remain cautious given the strong bearish momentum and the absence of clear bullish divergences or volume confirmation in the rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on using a combination of RSI and MACD to identify oversold conditions and momentum shifts in small-cap altcoins like ZENBTC. The strategy would enter a long position when RSI crosses below 30 (oversold) and MACD line crosses above the signal line (bullish crossover). A stop loss is placed at the recent low, and a take profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the recent swing low. Given ZENBTC's current position in oversold territory and a potential for a short-term bounce, this strategy could generate a profitable trade if the price shows a retracement. However, the high bearish momentum suggests the strategy should be used with caution and ideally in combination with a trailing stop to manage downside risk.