Market Overview: Hooked Protocol/Tether (HOOKUSDT)

Summary
• Price action shows consolidation after a morning breakout attempt.
• Momentum remains mixed, with RSI near neutral levels.
• Volatility increased slightly in the overnight session.
• Bollinger Bands tightened pre-market, suggesting potential for a move.

Market Overview

Hooked Protocol/Tether (HOOKUSDT) opened at $0.0556 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.0565, touched a low of $0.0543, and closed at $0.0573 as of 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 5,678,998.5 and notional turnover was $313,734.

The price action suggests a developing bullish bias, particularly after a strong rebound from the 0.0560 support level and a breakout above the 0.0565 psychological resistance. A bullish engulfing pattern formed in the early morning hours, followed by a continuation of higher closes. The morning session saw a 1.2% increase in price and a corresponding rise in volume.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels identified include $0.0550 and $0.0545, with the 0.0560 level acting as a firm short-term floor. Resistance levels are now at $0.0572 and $0.0575. A notable bullish engulfing candle formed just before the 00:00 ET window, suggesting strong buying pressure. The formation appears to be part of a larger base-building phase, which may precede a breakaway move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA (0.0562) crossed above the 50 EMA (0.0561) during the overnight session, signaling a short-term bullish crossover. The daily chart shows the 50 EMA at $0.0559 and the 200 EMA at $0.0565, suggesting the price may be entering a neutral to mildly bullish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line just before the 12:00 ET window, indicating a positive shift in momentum. RSI stands at 54, suggesting the pair is not overbought or oversold, leaving room for both upward and downward movements depending on volume and sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, with the price currently resting above the midline but within the upper band. This indicates a moderate increase in volatility and suggests the market is pricing in potential continuation, though a breakout would need to clear the $0.0575 resistance decisively.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged overnight, with the most significant spikes occurring between 02:45 ET and 04:00 ET. This volume surge coincided with a price push above the 0.0565 level, suggesting confirmation of the breakout. Turnover and price action remain positively correlated, with no notable divergence observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels are at 0.0557 (38.2%), 0.0562 (50%), and 0.0567 (61.8%). The 0.0572 level marks a potential target for the continuation of the current rally. Daily retracement levels suggest that further consolidation near 0.0575 could set up a test of the 0.0580 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based solely on RSI overbought (>70) entries and three-day exits failed to produce attractive risk-adjusted returns. The cumulative return was -20%, with a maximum drawdown of -56% and a Sharpe ratio near zero. These findings suggest that a standalone RSI-based approach is insufficient for HOOKUSDT. To improve outcomes, investors may want to combine RSI with trend filters or volatility indicators to better capture directional bias and reduce exposure to false breakouts.